Repligen Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| RGEN Stock | USD 137.22 0.89 0.64% |
Repligen Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, the relative strength index (RSI) of Repligen's share price is approaching 34 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Repligen, making its price go up or down. Momentum 34
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Repligen hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Repligen from the perspective of Repligen response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Repligen on the next trading day is expected to be 137.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.56 and the sum of the absolute errors of 153.56. Repligen after-hype prediction price | USD 134.66 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Repligen to cross-verify your projections. Repligen Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Repligen price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Repligen using various technical indicators. When you analyze Repligen charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Repligen Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Repligen on the next trading day is expected to be 137.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.56, mean absolute percentage error of 10.70, and the sum of the absolute errors of 153.56.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Repligen Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Repligen's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Repligen Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Repligen | Repligen Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Repligen Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Repligen's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Repligen's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 135.25 and 139.19, respectively. We have considered Repligen's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Repligen stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Repligen stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.6425 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.2857 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.5593 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0163 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 153.56 |
Predictive Modules for Repligen
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Repligen. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Repligen's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Repligen After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Repligen at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Repligen or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Repligen, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Repligen Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Repligen's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Repligen's historical news coverage. Repligen's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 132.67 and 136.65, respectively. We have considered Repligen's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Repligen is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Repligen is based on 3 months time horizon.
Repligen Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Repligen is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Repligen backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Repligen, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.26 | 1.97 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
137.22 | 134.66 | 0.36 |
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Repligen Hype Timeline
Repligen is at this time traded for 137.22. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.16. Repligen is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 134.66 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.36%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.26%. The volatility of related hype on Repligen is about 321.78%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 137.38. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 634.44 M. Net Loss for the year was (25.51 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 365.19 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Repligen to cross-verify your projections.Repligen Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Repligen's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Repligen's future price movements. Getting to know how Repligen's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Repligen may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AVTR | Avantor | 0.74 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.75 | (4.39) | 21.90 | |
| MASI | Masimo | (3.16) | 10 per month | 1.71 | 0.05 | 4.37 | (2.71) | 33.70 | |
| BAX | Baxter International | 0.53 | 9 per month | 3.27 | 0.06 | 5.11 | (3.63) | 21.61 | |
| ATR | AptarGroup | 4.89 | 8 per month | 1.13 | 0.13 | 2.93 | (1.51) | 8.98 | |
| BIO | Bio Rad Laboratories | 0.84 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.02 | (2.83) | 17.85 | |
| DVA | DaVita HealthCare Partners | 0.42 | 9 per month | 1.56 | 0.08 | 4.25 | (3.23) | 26.79 | |
| CRL | Charles River Laboratories | 0.19 | 6 per month | 2.74 | (0.02) | 3.95 | (4.36) | 14.56 | |
| GMED | Globus Medical | 0.53 | 3 per month | 1.24 | 0.04 | 3.63 | (2.45) | 7.49 | |
| STVN | Stevanato Group SpA | 0.53 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 4.36 | (5.60) | 15.57 |
Other Forecasting Options for Repligen
For every potential investor in Repligen, whether a beginner or expert, Repligen's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Repligen Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Repligen. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Repligen's price trends.Repligen Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Repligen stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Repligen could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Repligen by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Repligen Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Repligen stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Repligen shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Repligen stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Repligen entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 29395.97 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.17) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 135.63 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 136.16 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.15 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.89) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 34.5 |
Repligen Risk Indicators
The analysis of Repligen's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Repligen's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting repligen stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.52 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.97 | |||
| Variance | 3.9 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Repligen
The number of cover stories for Repligen depends on current market conditions and Repligen's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Repligen is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Repligen's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Repligen Short Properties
Repligen's future price predictability will typically decrease when Repligen's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Repligen often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Repligen's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Repligen's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 55.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 757.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Repligen to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Repligen Stock, please use our How to Invest in Repligen guide.You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Will Life Sciences Tools & Services sector continue expanding? Could Repligen diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Repligen. Anticipated expansion of Repligen directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Repligen data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Investors evaluate Repligen using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Repligen's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Repligen's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Repligen's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Repligen should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Repligen's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.