Regis Resources Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

RGRNF Stock  USD 1.70  0.10  6.25%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Regis Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 1.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.96. Regis Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Regis Resources' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for Regis Resources is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Regis Resources value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Regis Resources Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Regis Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 1.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.96.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Regis Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Regis Resources' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Regis Resources Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Regis Resources Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Regis Resources' Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Regis Resources' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 6.62, respectively. We have considered Regis Resources' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1.70
1.81
Expected Value
6.62
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Regis Resources pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Regis Resources pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.9946
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0649
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0459
SAESum of the absolute errors3.9574
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Regis Resources. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Regis Resources. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Regis Resources

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Regis Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.091.706.50
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.071.356.15
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Regis Resources

For every potential investor in Regis, whether a beginner or expert, Regis Resources' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Regis Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Regis. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Regis Resources' price trends.

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Regis Resources Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Regis Resources' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Regis Resources' current price.

Regis Resources Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Regis Resources pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Regis Resources shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Regis Resources pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Regis Resources entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Regis Resources Risk Indicators

The analysis of Regis Resources' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Regis Resources' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting regis pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Regis Pink Sheet

Regis Resources financial ratios help investors to determine whether Regis Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Regis with respect to the benefits of owning Regis Resources security.