Pernod Ricard Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| RI Stock | EUR 83.24 0.18 0.22% |
Pernod Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Pernod Ricard stock prices and determine the direction of Pernod Ricard SA's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Pernod Ricard's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Pernod Ricard's share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.24) | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.0251 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.179 | Wall Street Target Price 98.105 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.04) |
Using Pernod Ricard hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Pernod Ricard SA from the perspective of Pernod Ricard response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Pernod Ricard SA on the next trading day is expected to be 83.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 64.34. Pernod Ricard after-hype prediction price | EUR 83.33 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Pernod |
Pernod Ricard Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Pernod price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Pernod using various technical indicators. When you analyze Pernod charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Pernod Ricard Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 13th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Pernod Ricard SA on the next trading day is expected to be 83.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.07, mean absolute percentage error of 2.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 64.34.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pernod Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pernod Ricard's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Pernod Ricard Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Pernod Ricard | Pernod Ricard Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Pernod Ricard Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Pernod Ricard's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Pernod Ricard's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 81.57 and 84.91, respectively. We have considered Pernod Ricard's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pernod Ricard stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pernod Ricard stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.0205 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1027 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0723 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.014 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 64.34 |
Predictive Modules for Pernod Ricard
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pernod Ricard SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Pernod Ricard After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Pernod Ricard at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Pernod Ricard or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Pernod Ricard, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Pernod Ricard Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Pernod Ricard's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Pernod Ricard's historical news coverage. Pernod Ricard's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 81.67 and 84.99, respectively. We have considered Pernod Ricard's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Pernod Ricard is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Pernod Ricard SA is based on 3 months time horizon.
Pernod Ricard Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Pernod Ricard is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Pernod Ricard backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Pernod Ricard, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 1.67 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 2 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
83.24 | 83.33 | 0.11 |
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Pernod Ricard Hype Timeline
Pernod Ricard SA is at this time traded for 83.24on Euronext Paris of France. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Pernod is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 83.33 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 154.63%. The price jump on the next news is forecasted to be 0.11%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.09%. The volatility of related hype on Pernod Ricard is about 3131.25%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 83.24. The company reported the revenue of 10.96 B. Net Income was 1.63 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 6.52 B. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next projected press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pernod Ricard to cross-verify your projections.Pernod Ricard Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Pernod Ricard's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Pernod Ricard's future price movements. Getting to know how Pernod Ricard's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Pernod Ricard may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LPE | Laurent Perrier | (0.60) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.98 | (2.35) | 7.72 | |
| RCO | Remy Cointreau | 0.64 | 7 per month | 1.67 | 0.01 | 3.59 | (2.72) | 12.38 | |
| ALLAN | Lanson BCC SA | 0.10 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 1.49 | (2.06) | 5.67 | |
| SBT | Oeneo SA | 0.1 | 3 per month | 0.72 | (0.12) | 1.33 | (1.52) | 4.85 | |
| ALAVI | AdVini SA | 0.1 | 5 per month | 0.29 | 0.16 | 1.64 | (0.81) | 4.62 | |
| MBWS | Marie Brizard Wine | 0.01 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.79 | (1.73) | 12.51 | |
| CA | Carrefour SA | (0.07) | 3 per month | 0.66 | 0.12 | 2.76 | (1.58) | 6.14 | |
| LOUP | Societe LDC SA | 0.20 | 1 per month | 1.05 | (0.01) | 1.56 | (1.45) | 6.70 | |
| BB | Socit BIC SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.89 | 0.12 | 1.55 | (1.66) | 4.75 |
Other Forecasting Options for Pernod Ricard
For every potential investor in Pernod, whether a beginner or expert, Pernod Ricard's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Pernod Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Pernod. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Pernod Ricard's price trends.Pernod Ricard Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Pernod Ricard stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Pernod Ricard could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Pernod Ricard by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Pernod Ricard Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Pernod Ricard stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Pernod Ricard shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Pernod Ricard stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Pernod Ricard SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 18650.67 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.0833 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 83.16 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 83.19 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.17 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.18 |
Pernod Ricard Risk Indicators
The analysis of Pernod Ricard's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Pernod Ricard's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pernod stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.21 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.5 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.64 | |||
| Variance | 2.7 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.54 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.24 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.28) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Pernod Ricard
The number of cover stories for Pernod Ricard depends on current market conditions and Pernod Ricard's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Pernod Ricard is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Pernod Ricard's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Pernod Ricard Short Properties
Pernod Ricard's future price predictability will typically decrease when Pernod Ricard's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Pernod Ricard SA often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Pernod Ricard's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Pernod Ricard's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 252 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.8 B |
Other Information on Investing in Pernod Stock
Pernod Ricard financial ratios help investors to determine whether Pernod Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Pernod with respect to the benefits of owning Pernod Ricard security.