REAL INVESTOR Fund Forward View - Simple Regression

RINV11 Fund   109.98  0.19  0.17%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of REAL INVESTOR FUNDO on the next trading day is expected to be 112.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.72 and the sum of the absolute errors of 44.09. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast REAL INVESTOR's fund prices and determine the direction of REAL INVESTOR FUNDO's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. The relative strength index (RSI) of REAL INVESTOR's share price is above 70 at this time indicating that the fund is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling REAL, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 76

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of REAL INVESTOR's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with REAL INVESTOR FUNDO, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using REAL INVESTOR hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of REAL INVESTOR FUNDO from the perspective of REAL INVESTOR response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of REAL INVESTOR FUNDO on the next trading day is expected to be 112.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.72 and the sum of the absolute errors of 44.09.

REAL INVESTOR after-hype prediction price

    
  BRL 109.98  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any fund could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in inflation.

REAL INVESTOR Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine REAL price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for REAL using various technical indicators. When you analyze REAL charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through REAL INVESTOR price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

REAL INVESTOR Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of REAL INVESTOR FUNDO on the next trading day is expected to be 112.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.72, mean absolute percentage error of 0.78, and the sum of the absolute errors of 44.09.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict REAL Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that REAL INVESTOR's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

REAL INVESTOR Fund Forecast Pattern

REAL INVESTOR Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting REAL INVESTOR's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. REAL INVESTOR's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 111.23 and 112.80, respectively. We have considered REAL INVESTOR's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
109.98
111.23
Downside
112.02
Expected Value
112.80
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of REAL INVESTOR fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent REAL INVESTOR fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.8577
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.7228
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0068
SAESum of the absolute errors44.0908
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as REAL INVESTOR FUNDO historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for REAL INVESTOR

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as REAL INVESTOR FUNDO. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

REAL INVESTOR Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

As far as predicting the price of REAL INVESTOR at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in REAL INVESTOR or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Fund prices, such as prices of REAL INVESTOR, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

REAL INVESTOR Fund Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Fund such as REAL INVESTOR is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading REAL INVESTOR backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with REAL INVESTOR, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.18 
0.79
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Within a week
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
109.98
109.98
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

REAL INVESTOR Hype Timeline

REAL INVESTOR FUNDO is at this time traded for 109.98on Sao Paulo Exchange of Brazil. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. REAL is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.18%. %. The volatility of related hype on REAL INVESTOR is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 109.98. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next estimated press release will be within a week.
Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any fund could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in inflation.

REAL INVESTOR Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to REAL INVESTOR's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict REAL INVESTOR's future price movements. Getting to know how REAL INVESTOR's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how REAL INVESTOR may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for REAL INVESTOR

For every potential investor in REAL, whether a beginner or expert, REAL INVESTOR's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. REAL Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in REAL. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying REAL INVESTOR's price trends.

REAL INVESTOR Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with REAL INVESTOR fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of REAL INVESTOR could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing REAL INVESTOR by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

REAL INVESTOR Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how REAL INVESTOR fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading REAL INVESTOR shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying REAL INVESTOR fund market strength indicators, traders can identify REAL INVESTOR FUNDO entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

REAL INVESTOR Risk Indicators

The analysis of REAL INVESTOR's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in REAL INVESTOR's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting real fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for REAL INVESTOR

The number of cover stories for REAL INVESTOR depends on current market conditions and REAL INVESTOR's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that REAL INVESTOR is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about REAL INVESTOR's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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