Rmb Small Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing

RMBBX Fund  USD 16.38  0.11  0.68%   
Rmb Mutual Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Rmb Small's share price is at 54 indicating that the mutual fund is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Rmb Small, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 54

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Rmb Small's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Rmb Small Cap, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Rmb Small hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Rmb Small Cap from the perspective of Rmb Small response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Rmb Small Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 16.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.36.

Rmb Small after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 16.26  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Rmb Small to cross-verify your projections.

Rmb Small Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Rmb price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Rmb using various technical indicators. When you analyze Rmb charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Rmb Small simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Rmb Small Cap are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Rmb Small Cap prices get older.

Rmb Small Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Rmb Small Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 16.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.36.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Rmb Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Rmb Small's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Rmb Small Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Rmb Small  Rmb Small Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Rmb Small Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Rmb Small's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Rmb Small's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.27 and 17.49, respectively. We have considered Rmb Small's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
16.38
16.38
Expected Value
17.49
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Rmb Small mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Rmb Small mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.7865
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0227
MADMean absolute deviation0.1227
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0078
SAESum of the absolute errors7.36
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Rmb Small Cap forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Rmb Small observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Rmb Small

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Rmb Small Cap. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
15.1516.2617.37
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
15.0316.1417.25
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
15.9416.4616.98
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Rmb Small. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Rmb Small's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Rmb Small's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Rmb Small Cap.

Rmb Small After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Rmb Small at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Rmb Small or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Rmb Small, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Rmb Small Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Rmb Small's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Rmb Small's historical news coverage. Rmb Small's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 15.15 and 17.37, respectively. We have considered Rmb Small's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
16.38
16.26
After-hype Price
17.37
Upside
Rmb Small is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Rmb Small Cap is based on 3 months time horizon.

Rmb Small Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Rmb Small is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Rmb Small backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Rmb Small, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.15 
1.11
 0.00  
  0.03 
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Within a week
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
16.38
16.26
0.06 
0.00  
Notes

Rmb Small Hype Timeline

Rmb Small Cap is at this time traded for 16.38. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.03. Rmb is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 16.26. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -0.06%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.15%. The volatility of related hype on Rmb Small is about 489.71%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.41. The company last dividend was issued on the 12th of December 1970. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be within a week.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Rmb Small to cross-verify your projections.

Rmb Small Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Rmb Small's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Rmb Small's future price movements. Getting to know how Rmb Small's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Rmb Small may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Rmb Small

For every potential investor in Rmb, whether a beginner or expert, Rmb Small's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Rmb Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Rmb. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Rmb Small's price trends.

Rmb Small Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Rmb Small mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Rmb Small could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Rmb Small by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Rmb Small Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Rmb Small mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Rmb Small shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Rmb Small mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Rmb Small Cap entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Rmb Small Risk Indicators

The analysis of Rmb Small's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Rmb Small's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting rmb mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Rmb Small

The number of cover stories for Rmb Small depends on current market conditions and Rmb Small's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Rmb Small is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Rmb Small's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Other Information on Investing in Rmb Mutual Fund

Rmb Small financial ratios help investors to determine whether Rmb Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Rmb with respect to the benefits of owning Rmb Small security.
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