Royce Micro Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| RMT Stock | USD 11.59 0.20 1.70% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Royce Micro Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 11.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.49. Royce Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Royce Micro's share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.07) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.27) |
Using Royce Micro hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Royce Micro Cap from the perspective of Royce Micro response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Royce Micro Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 11.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.49. Royce Micro after-hype prediction price | USD 13.2 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Royce Micro to cross-verify your projections. Royce Micro Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Royce price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Royce using various technical indicators. When you analyze Royce charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Royce Micro Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Royce Micro Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 11.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.49.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Royce Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Royce Micro's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Royce Micro Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Royce Micro | Royce Micro Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Royce Micro Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Royce Micro's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Royce Micro's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.31 and 12.87, respectively. We have considered Royce Micro's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Royce Micro stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Royce Micro stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.7019 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0302 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1269 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0122 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.49 |
Predictive Modules for Royce Micro
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Royce Micro Cap. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Royce Micro After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Royce Micro at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Royce Micro or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Royce Micro, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Royce Micro Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Royce Micro's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Royce Micro's historical news coverage. Royce Micro's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.43 and 14.48, respectively. We have considered Royce Micro's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Royce Micro is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Royce Micro Cap is based on 3 months time horizon.
Royce Micro Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Royce Micro is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Royce Micro backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Royce Micro, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 1.28 | 1.61 | 2.32 | 1 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | Very soon |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
11.59 | 13.20 | 13.89 |
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Royce Micro Hype Timeline
On the 25th of January Royce Micro Cap is traded for 11.59. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.61, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 2.32. Royce is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 13.2 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 13.53%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 13.89%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.17%. The volatility of related hype on Royce Micro is about 9.38%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.91. Royce Micro Cap has 2 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.05, which may show that the company is not taking advantage of profits from borrowing. Royce Micro Cap has a current ratio of 1.33, which is typical for the industry and considered as normal. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Royce to invest in growth at high rates of return. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be very soon. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Royce Micro to cross-verify your projections.Royce Micro Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Royce Micro's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Royce Micro's future price movements. Getting to know how Royce Micro's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Royce Micro may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GUT | Gabelli Utility Closed | 14.11 | 2 per month | 0.92 | 0.03 | 1.39 | (1.17) | 5.82 | |
| ANTUX | Nt Non US Intrinsic | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1.61 | (0.86) | 8.01 | |
| CRMMX | Crm Mid Cap | (6.99) | 9 per month | 0.65 | 0.11 | 2.11 | (1.42) | 9.54 | |
| RSIGX | Victory Rs International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.56 | 0.05 | 1.17 | (1.27) | 3.54 | |
| GUBGX | Victory Rs International | (4.87) | 5 per month | 0.58 | 0.05 | 1.15 | (1.25) | 3.59 | |
| TCVAX | Touchstone Mid Cap | (8.84) | 5 per month | 0.50 | 0.10 | 1.68 | (1.12) | 5.13 | |
| BLW | BlackRock Limited Duration | 6.56 | 1 per month | 0.22 | (0.13) | 0.45 | (0.52) | 1.33 | |
| FTHY | First Trust High | 0.02 | 7 per month | 0.24 | (0.08) | 0.51 | (0.56) | 1.81 | |
| VGM | Invesco Trust For | 9.85 | 1 per month | 0.40 | (0.08) | 0.60 | (0.60) | 2.24 | |
| SVOAX | Simt Managed Volatility | 126.57 | 5 per month | 0.00 | 0.1 | 1.01 | (0.73) | 19.62 |
Other Forecasting Options for Royce Micro
For every potential investor in Royce, whether a beginner or expert, Royce Micro's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Royce Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Royce. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Royce Micro's price trends.Royce Micro Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Royce Micro stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Royce Micro could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Royce Micro by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Royce Micro Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Royce Micro stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Royce Micro shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Royce Micro stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Royce Micro Cap entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Royce Micro Risk Indicators
The analysis of Royce Micro's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Royce Micro's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting royce stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.0 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.1 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Variance | 1.62 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.03 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.21 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.07) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Royce Micro
The number of cover stories for Royce Micro depends on current market conditions and Royce Micro's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Royce Micro is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Royce Micro's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Royce Micro Short Properties
Royce Micro's future price predictability will typically decrease when Royce Micro's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Royce Micro Cap often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Royce Micro's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Royce Micro's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 51.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 37.9 K |
Additional Tools for Royce Stock Analysis
When running Royce Micro's price analysis, check to measure Royce Micro's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Royce Micro is operating at the current time. Most of Royce Micro's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Royce Micro's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Royce Micro's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Royce Micro to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.