Renault SA Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| RNLSY Stock | USD 7.59 0.02 0.26% |
Renault Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Renault SA's share price is approaching 43 indicating that the pink sheet is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Renault SA, making its price go up or down. Momentum 43
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Renault SA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Renault SA from the perspective of Renault SA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Renault SA on the next trading day is expected to be 7.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.82. Renault SA after-hype prediction price | USD 7.61 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Renault |
Renault SA Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Renault price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Renault using various technical indicators. When you analyze Renault charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Renault SA Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Renault SA on the next trading day is expected to be 7.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.82.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Renault Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Renault SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Renault SA Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Renault SA | Renault SA Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Renault SA Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Renault SA's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Renault SA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.53 and 9.65, respectively. We have considered Renault SA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Renault SA pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Renault SA pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.6418 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0027 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1303 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0162 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.82 |
Predictive Modules for Renault SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Renault SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Renault SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Renault SA After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Renault SA at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Renault SA or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Renault SA, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Renault SA Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Renault SA's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Renault SA's historical news coverage. Renault SA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.55 and 9.67, respectively. We have considered Renault SA's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Renault SA is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Renault SA is based on 3 months time horizon.
Renault SA Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Renault SA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Renault SA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Renault SA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 2.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
7.59 | 7.61 | 0.00 |
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Renault SA Hype Timeline
Renault SA is at this time traded for 7.59. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Renault is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Renault SA is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.59. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.36. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Renault SA has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.23. The entity last dividend was issued on the 28th of April 2020. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next projected press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Renault SA to cross-verify your projections.Renault SA Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Renault SA's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Renault SA's future price movements. Getting to know how Renault SA's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Renault SA may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| POAHY | Porsche Automobile Holding | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.43 | 0.04 | 2.51 | (2.17) | 10.42 | |
| POAHF | Porsche Automobil Holding | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.31 | 0.01 | 3.55 | (4.17) | 14.65 | |
| DNFGF | Dongfeng Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.04 | 2.46 | (1.63) | 27.75 | |
| DNFGY | Dongfeng Motor Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 0.00 | (0.18) | 10.69 | |
| NSANF | Nissan Motor Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.92 | 0.04 | 9.76 | (9.96) | 29.51 | |
| NSANY | Nissan Motor Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.10 | (0.01) | 3.99 | (2.80) | 11.01 | |
| GNZUF | Guangzhou Automobile Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.57 | 0.05 | 10.53 | (8.89) | 37.41 | |
| ISUZY | Isuzu Motors | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.25 | 0.15 | 4.79 | (2.99) | 12.05 | |
| HLLGY | HELLA GmbH Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8.45 | |
| HLKHF | HELLA GmbH Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for Renault SA
For every potential investor in Renault, whether a beginner or expert, Renault SA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Renault Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Renault. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Renault SA's price trends.Renault SA Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Renault SA pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Renault SA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Renault SA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Renault SA Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Renault SA pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Renault SA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Renault SA pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Renault SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Renault SA Risk Indicators
The analysis of Renault SA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Renault SA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting renault pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.65 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.07 | |||
| Variance | 4.29 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Renault SA
The number of cover stories for Renault SA depends on current market conditions and Renault SA's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Renault SA is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Renault SA's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Renault SA Short Properties
Renault SA's future price predictability will typically decrease when Renault SA's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Renault SA often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Renault SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Renault SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.4 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 22.8 B |
Additional Tools for Renault Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Renault SA's price analysis, check to measure Renault SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Renault SA is operating at the current time. Most of Renault SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Renault SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Renault SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Renault SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.