Rottneros Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

RROS Stock  SEK 2.37  0.02  0.85%   
Rottneros Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the value of rsi of Rottneros' share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Rottneros' future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Rottneros AB, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Rottneros hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Rottneros AB from the perspective of Rottneros response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Rottneros AB on the next trading day is expected to be 2.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.13.

Rottneros after-hype prediction price

    
  SEK 2.37  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Rottneros to cross-verify your projections.

Rottneros Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Rottneros price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Rottneros using various technical indicators. When you analyze Rottneros charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Triple exponential smoothing for Rottneros - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Rottneros prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Rottneros price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Rottneros AB.

Rottneros Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 8th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Rottneros AB on the next trading day is expected to be 2.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.13.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Rottneros Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Rottneros' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Rottneros Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Rottneros  Rottneros Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Rottneros Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Rottneros' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Rottneros' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 5.29, respectively. We have considered Rottneros' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
2.37
2.36
Expected Value
5.29
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Rottneros stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Rottneros stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0113
MADMean absolute deviation0.0521
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0203
SAESum of the absolute errors3.1282
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Rottneros observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Rottneros AB observations.

Predictive Modules for Rottneros

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Rottneros AB. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.122.375.29
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.122.475.39
Details

Rottneros After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Rottneros at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Rottneros or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Rottneros, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Rottneros Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Rottneros' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Rottneros' historical news coverage. Rottneros' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.12 and 5.29, respectively. We have considered Rottneros' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
2.37
2.37
After-hype Price
5.29
Upside
Rottneros is unstable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Rottneros AB is based on 3 months time horizon.

Rottneros Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Rottneros is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Rottneros backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Rottneros, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.18 
2.92
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Within a week
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
2.37
2.37
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Rottneros Hype Timeline

Rottneros AB is at this time traded for 2.37on Stockholm Exchange of Sweden. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Rottneros is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.18%. %. The volatility of related hype on Rottneros is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.37. About 61.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.84. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Rottneros AB last dividend was issued on the 29th of April 2022. The entity had 1:10 split on the 5th of May 2010. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be within a week.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Rottneros to cross-verify your projections.

Rottneros Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Rottneros' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Rottneros' future price movements. Getting to know how Rottneros' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Rottneros may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Rottneros

For every potential investor in Rottneros, whether a beginner or expert, Rottneros' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Rottneros Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Rottneros. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Rottneros' price trends.

Rottneros Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Rottneros stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Rottneros could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Rottneros by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Rottneros Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Rottneros stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Rottneros shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Rottneros stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Rottneros AB entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Rottneros Risk Indicators

The analysis of Rottneros' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Rottneros' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting rottneros stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Rottneros

The number of cover stories for Rottneros depends on current market conditions and Rottneros' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Rottneros is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Rottneros' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Rottneros Short Properties

Rottneros' future price predictability will typically decrease when Rottneros' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Rottneros AB often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Rottneros' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Rottneros' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding152.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments161 M

Additional Tools for Rottneros Stock Analysis

When running Rottneros' price analysis, check to measure Rottneros' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Rottneros is operating at the current time. Most of Rottneros' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Rottneros' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Rottneros' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Rottneros to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.