T Rowe Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

RRTFX Fund  USD 19.34  0.03  0.16%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of T Rowe Price on the next trading day is expected to be 19.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.12. RRTFX Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through T Rowe price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

T Rowe Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of T Rowe Price on the next trading day is expected to be 19.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.12.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict RRTFX Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that T Rowe's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

T Rowe Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest T RoweT Rowe Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

T Rowe Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting T Rowe's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. T Rowe's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.62 and 19.95, respectively. We have considered T Rowe's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
19.34
19.29
Expected Value
19.95
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of T Rowe mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent T Rowe mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.8912
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.166
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0088
SAESum of the absolute errors10.1243
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as T Rowe Price historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for T Rowe

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as T Rowe Price. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
18.6719.3420.01
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
18.5119.1819.85
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
18.6619.0719.49
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as T Rowe. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against T Rowe's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, T Rowe's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in T Rowe Price.

Other Forecasting Options for T Rowe

For every potential investor in RRTFX, whether a beginner or expert, T Rowe's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. RRTFX Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in RRTFX. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying T Rowe's price trends.

T Rowe Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with T Rowe mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of T Rowe could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing T Rowe by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

T Rowe Price Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of T Rowe's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of T Rowe's current price.

T Rowe Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how T Rowe mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading T Rowe shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying T Rowe mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify T Rowe Price entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

T Rowe Risk Indicators

The analysis of T Rowe's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in T Rowe's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting rrtfx mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in RRTFX Mutual Fund

T Rowe financial ratios help investors to determine whether RRTFX Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in RRTFX with respect to the benefits of owning T Rowe security.
Watchlist Optimization
Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm
Portfolio Volatility
Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk
Fundamentals Comparison
Compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities
Portfolio File Import
Quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format