Reliance Steel Stock Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average

RS Stock  USD 316.66  3.13  1.00%   
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Reliance Steel Aluminum on the next trading day is expected to be 307.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 8.99 and the sum of the absolute errors of 377.55. Reliance Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
At this time, Reliance Steel's Inventory Turnover is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to gain to 7.10 in 2024, whereas Payables Turnover is likely to drop 14.78 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to gain to about 70.5 M in 2024. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to gain to about 2.2 B in 2024.
A commonly used 20-period moving average forecast model for Reliance Steel Aluminum is based on a synthetically constructed Reliance Steeldaily price series in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 20 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Reliance Steel 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 23rd of November

Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Reliance Steel Aluminum on the next trading day is expected to be 307.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 8.99, mean absolute percentage error of 144.59, and the sum of the absolute errors of 377.55.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Reliance Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Reliance Steel's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Reliance Steel Stock Forecast Pattern

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Reliance Steel Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Reliance Steel's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Reliance Steel's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 305.11 and 309.50, respectively. We have considered Reliance Steel's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
316.66
305.11
Downside
307.31
Expected Value
309.50
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Reliance Steel stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Reliance Steel stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria88.1648
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -7.9393
MADMean absolute deviation8.9893
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0293
SAESum of the absolute errors377.551
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Reliance Steel Aluminum 20-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Reliance Steel

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Reliance Steel Aluminum. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Reliance Steel's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
314.08316.26318.44
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
282.07284.25348.33
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
291.59312.47333.35
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
266.63293.00325.23
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Reliance Steel

For every potential investor in Reliance, whether a beginner or expert, Reliance Steel's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Reliance Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Reliance. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Reliance Steel's price trends.

Reliance Steel Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Reliance Steel stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Reliance Steel could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Reliance Steel by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Reliance Steel Aluminum Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Reliance Steel's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Reliance Steel's current price.

Reliance Steel Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Reliance Steel stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Reliance Steel shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Reliance Steel stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Reliance Steel Aluminum entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Reliance Steel Risk Indicators

The analysis of Reliance Steel's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Reliance Steel's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting reliance stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

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Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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Additional Tools for Reliance Stock Analysis

When running Reliance Steel's price analysis, check to measure Reliance Steel's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Reliance Steel is operating at the current time. Most of Reliance Steel's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Reliance Steel's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Reliance Steel's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Reliance Steel to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.