Thorchain Crypto Coin Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

RUNE Crypto  USD 0.60  0.01  1.69%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Thorchain on the next trading day is expected to be 0.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.30. Thorchain Crypto Coin Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Thorchain crypto prices and determine the direction of Thorchain's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Thorchain's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the RSI of Thorchain's share price is approaching 43 indicating that the crypto coin is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Thorchain, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 43

 Sell Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Thorchain's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Thorchain, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Thorchain hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Thorchain from the perspective of Thorchain response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Thorchain on the next trading day is expected to be 0.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.30.

Thorchain after-hype prediction price

    
  .CC 0.6  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as crypto price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Thorchain to cross-verify your projections.

Thorchain Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Thorchain price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Thorchain using various technical indicators. When you analyze Thorchain charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Thorchain works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Thorchain Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Thorchain on the next trading day is expected to be 0.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0009, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.30.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Thorchain Crypto Coin prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Thorchain's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Thorchain Crypto Coin Forecast Pattern

Thorchain Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Thorchain's Crypto Coin value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Thorchain's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 4.65, respectively. We have considered Thorchain's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.60
0.60
Expected Value
4.65
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Thorchain crypto coin data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Thorchain crypto coin, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0035
MADMean absolute deviation0.0216
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0326
SAESum of the absolute errors1.2974
When Thorchain prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Thorchain trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Thorchain observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Thorchain

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Thorchain. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the crypto coin market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the crypto coin market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.030.604.62
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.030.544.56
Details

Thorchain After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Thorchain at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Thorchain or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Crypto Coin prices, such as prices of Thorchain, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Thorchain Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Thorchain's crypto coin value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Thorchain's historical news coverage. Thorchain's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.03 and 4.62, respectively. We have considered Thorchain's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
0.60
0.60
After-hype Price
4.62
Upside
Thorchain is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Thorchain is based on 3 months time horizon.

Thorchain Crypto Coin Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Cryptocurrency such as Thorchain is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Thorchain backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Crypto price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Thorchain, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.49 
4.05
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
Within a week
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
0.60
0.60
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Thorchain Hype Timeline

Thorchain is at this time traded for 0.60. This cryptocurrency is not elastic to its hype. The average crypto elasticity to the hype of similar coins is 0.0. Thorchain is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.49%. %. The volatility of related hype on Thorchain is about 384453.12%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.60. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be within a week.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Thorchain to cross-verify your projections.

Thorchain Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Thorchain's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Thorchain's future price movements. Getting to know how Thorchain's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Thorchain may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Thorchain

For every potential investor in Thorchain, whether a beginner or expert, Thorchain's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Thorchain Crypto Coin price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Thorchain. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Thorchain's price trends.

Thorchain Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Thorchain crypto coin to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Thorchain could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Thorchain by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Thorchain Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Thorchain crypto coin reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Thorchain shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Thorchain crypto coin market strength indicators, traders can identify Thorchain entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Thorchain Risk Indicators

The analysis of Thorchain's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Thorchain's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting thorchain crypto coin prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Thorchain

The number of cover stories for Thorchain depends on current market conditions and Thorchain's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Thorchain is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Thorchain's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
When determining whether Thorchain offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Thorchain's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Thorchain Crypto.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Thorchain to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Thorchain's coin value and its market price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Cryptocurrency investors typically determine Thorchain value by looking at such factors as its true mass adoption, usability, application, safety as well as its ability to resist fraud and manipulation. On the other hand, Thorchain's price is the amount at which it trades on the cryptocurrency exchange or other digital marketplace that truly represents its supply and demand.