Russel Metals Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| RUS Stock | CAD 48.56 0.15 0.31% |
Russel Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Russel Metals' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Russel Metals' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Russel Metals fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Russel Metals' stock price is about 67 indicating that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Russel, making its price go up or down. Momentum 67
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.062 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.8233 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.99 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.6343 | Wall Street Target Price 51.2857 |
Using Russel Metals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Russel Metals from the perspective of Russel Metals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Russel Metals on the next trading day is expected to be 48.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.55 and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.17. Russel Metals after-hype prediction price | CAD 48.56 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Russel |
Russel Metals Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Russel price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Russel using various technical indicators. When you analyze Russel charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Russel Metals Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Russel Metals on the next trading day is expected to be 48.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.55, mean absolute percentage error of 0.46, and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.17.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Russel Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Russel Metals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Russel Metals Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Russel Metals | Russel Metals Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Russel Metals Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Russel Metals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Russel Metals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 47.45 and 50.03, respectively. We have considered Russel Metals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Russel Metals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Russel Metals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.1646 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5512 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0129 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 34.1745 |
Predictive Modules for Russel Metals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Russel Metals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Russel Metals After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Russel Metals at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Russel Metals or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Russel Metals, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Russel Metals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Russel Metals' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Russel Metals' historical news coverage. Russel Metals' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 47.27 and 49.85, respectively. We have considered Russel Metals' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Russel Metals is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Russel Metals is based on 3 months time horizon.
Russel Metals Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Russel Metals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Russel Metals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Russel Metals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.23 | 1.29 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 8 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
48.56 | 48.56 | 0.00 |
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Russel Metals Hype Timeline
Russel Metals is at this time traded for 48.56on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.13. Russel is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.23%. %. The volatility of related hype on Russel Metals is about 228.54%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 48.43. About 28.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.67. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Russel Metals last dividend was issued on the 27th of November 2025. The entity had 3:2 split on the 1st of April 1993. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Russel Metals to cross-verify your projections.Russel Metals Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Russel Metals' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Russel Metals' future price movements. Getting to know how Russel Metals' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Russel Metals may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BDGI | Badger Infrastructure Solutions | (0.02) | 3 per month | 1.57 | 0.07 | 2.79 | (2.68) | 9.23 | |
| ADEN | ADENTRA | (0.81) | 2 per month | 1.64 | 0.03 | 3.03 | (2.66) | 11.24 | |
| BDT | Bird Construction | (0.15) | 6 per month | 2.69 | (0.03) | 3.10 | (3.75) | 11.62 | |
| WTE | Westshore Terminals Investment | (0.02) | 2 per month | 0.84 | 0.17 | 2.18 | (1.53) | 4.56 | |
| BLDP | Ballard Power Systems | 0.01 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 3.76 | (4.99) | 15.09 | |
| SIS | Savaria | (0.07) | 10 per month | 1.02 | 0.06 | 2.42 | (1.95) | 7.79 | |
| HPS-A | Hammond Power Solutions | (2.62) | 5 per month | 3.35 | (0.02) | 4.13 | (5.23) | 19.50 | |
| WJX | Wajax | (0.81) | 1 per month | 0.69 | 0.13 | 1.85 | (1.50) | 10.71 | |
| TCL-A | Transcontinental | (0.59) | 5 per month | 0.97 | 0.09 | 1.91 | (1.97) | 21.82 |
Other Forecasting Options for Russel Metals
For every potential investor in Russel, whether a beginner or expert, Russel Metals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Russel Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Russel. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Russel Metals' price trends.Russel Metals Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Russel Metals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Russel Metals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Russel Metals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Russel Metals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Russel Metals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Russel Metals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Russel Metals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Russel Metals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 4853.87 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.13) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 48.93 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 48.81 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.44) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.15) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 67.64 |
Russel Metals Risk Indicators
The analysis of Russel Metals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Russel Metals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting russel stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9122 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.21 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Variance | 1.6 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.98 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.46 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.00) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Russel Metals
The number of cover stories for Russel Metals depends on current market conditions and Russel Metals' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Russel Metals is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Russel Metals' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Russel Metals Short Properties
Russel Metals' future price predictability will typically decrease when Russel Metals' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Russel Metals often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Russel Metals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Russel Metals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 58.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 45.6 M |
Other Information on Investing in Russel Stock
Russel Metals financial ratios help investors to determine whether Russel Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Russel with respect to the benefits of owning Russel Metals security.