GraniteShares Etf Forecast - Simple Regression
| RVNL Etf | 36.36 1.50 3.96% |
GraniteShares Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, the relative strength momentum indicator of GraniteShares' share price is approaching 42 indicating that the etf is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling GraniteShares, making its price go up or down. Momentum 42
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using GraniteShares hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of GraniteShares 2x Long from the perspective of GraniteShares response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of GraniteShares 2x Long on the next trading day is expected to be 55.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.48 and the sum of the absolute errors of 456.58. GraniteShares after-hype prediction price | USD 36.36 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
GraniteShares | Build AI portfolio with GraniteShares Etf |
GraniteShares Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine GraniteShares price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for GraniteShares using various technical indicators. When you analyze GraniteShares charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
GraniteShares Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of GraniteShares 2x Long on the next trading day is expected to be 55.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.48, mean absolute percentage error of 89.54, and the sum of the absolute errors of 456.58.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GraniteShares Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GraniteShares' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
GraniteShares Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest GraniteShares | GraniteShares Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
GraniteShares Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting GraniteShares' Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. GraniteShares' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 44.54 and 65.63, respectively. We have considered GraniteShares' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GraniteShares etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GraniteShares etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.6052 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 7.4849 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1698 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 456.5806 |
Predictive Modules for GraniteShares
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GraniteShares 2x Long. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.GraniteShares After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of GraniteShares at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in GraniteShares or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of GraniteShares, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
GraniteShares Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting GraniteShares' etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on GraniteShares' historical news coverage. GraniteShares' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 25.90 and 46.82, respectively. We have considered GraniteShares' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
GraniteShares is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of GraniteShares 2x Long is based on 3 months time horizon.
GraniteShares Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as GraniteShares is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading GraniteShares backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with GraniteShares, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.75 | 10.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
36.36 | 36.36 | 0.00 |
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GraniteShares Hype Timeline
GraniteShares 2x Long is at this time traded for 36.36. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. GraniteShares is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.75%. %. The volatility of related hype on GraniteShares is about 1054000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 36.36. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GraniteShares to cross-verify your projections.GraniteShares Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to GraniteShares' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict GraniteShares' future price movements. Getting to know how GraniteShares' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how GraniteShares may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| QGRD | Horizon Nasdaq 100 Defined | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.17 | (1.76) | 3.80 | |
| CZAR | Themes Natural Monopoly | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 0.88 | (1.33) | 3.94 | |
| HOOI | Defiance Leveraged Long | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 11.91 | (15.80) | 33.65 | |
| BULD | Pacer BlueStar Engineering | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.51 | 0.02 | 2.74 | (2.94) | 7.66 | |
| PLT | Defiance Leveraged Long | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 7.94 | (11.38) | 28.74 | |
| AMDU | Defiance Leveraged Long | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.99 | (0.01) | 10.40 | (8.58) | 32.67 | |
| GENW | Spinnaker ETF Series | (0.01) | 1 per month | 0.41 | 0.15 | 1.19 | (0.96) | 2.97 | |
| TINT | ProShares Smart Materials | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.91 | 0.02 | 2.12 | (1.63) | 4.23 | |
| ZSB | USCF Sustainable Battery | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.75 | 0.28 | 2.85 | (1.84) | 8.00 | |
| HFMF | Unlimited HFMF Managed | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.76 | 0.07 | 1.45 | (1.18) | 4.71 |
Other Forecasting Options for GraniteShares
For every potential investor in GraniteShares, whether a beginner or expert, GraniteShares' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. GraniteShares Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in GraniteShares. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying GraniteShares' price trends.GraniteShares Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with GraniteShares etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of GraniteShares could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing GraniteShares by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
GraniteShares Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how GraniteShares etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading GraniteShares shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying GraniteShares etf market strength indicators, traders can identify GraniteShares 2x Long entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
GraniteShares Risk Indicators
The analysis of GraniteShares' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in GraniteShares' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting graniteshares etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 6.82 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 6.43 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 10.46 | |||
| Variance | 109.33 | |||
| Downside Variance | 48.41 | |||
| Semi Variance | 41.28 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (8.87) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for GraniteShares
The number of cover stories for GraniteShares depends on current market conditions and GraniteShares' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that GraniteShares is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about GraniteShares' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GraniteShares to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.
The market value of GraniteShares 2x Long is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of GraniteShares that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of GraniteShares' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is GraniteShares' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because GraniteShares' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect GraniteShares' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between GraniteShares' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if GraniteShares is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, GraniteShares' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.