ROCKWELL AUTOMATION Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| RWL Stock | EUR 347.50 10.60 2.96% |
ROCKWELL Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength momentum indicator of ROCKWELL AUTOMATION's share price is at 52 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling ROCKWELL AUTOMATION, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using ROCKWELL AUTOMATION hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ROCKWELL AUTOMATION from the perspective of ROCKWELL AUTOMATION response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ROCKWELL AUTOMATION on the next trading day is expected to be 347.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.90 and the sum of the absolute errors of 299.09. ROCKWELL AUTOMATION after-hype prediction price | EUR 348.4 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
ROCKWELL |
ROCKWELL AUTOMATION Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ROCKWELL price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ROCKWELL using various technical indicators. When you analyze ROCKWELL charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
ROCKWELL AUTOMATION Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ROCKWELL AUTOMATION on the next trading day is expected to be 347.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.90, mean absolute percentage error of 37.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 299.09.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ROCKWELL Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ROCKWELL AUTOMATION's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ROCKWELL AUTOMATION Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ROCKWELL AUTOMATION | ROCKWELL AUTOMATION Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
ROCKWELL AUTOMATION Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ROCKWELL AUTOMATION's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ROCKWELL AUTOMATION's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 345.93 and 349.66, respectively. We have considered ROCKWELL AUTOMATION's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ROCKWELL AUTOMATION stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ROCKWELL AUTOMATION stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.7235 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.6472 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.9031 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0145 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 299.0883 |
Predictive Modules for ROCKWELL AUTOMATION
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ROCKWELL AUTOMATION. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ROCKWELL AUTOMATION After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ROCKWELL AUTOMATION at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ROCKWELL AUTOMATION or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ROCKWELL AUTOMATION, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ROCKWELL AUTOMATION Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ROCKWELL AUTOMATION's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ROCKWELL AUTOMATION's historical news coverage. ROCKWELL AUTOMATION's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 346.54 and 350.26, respectively. We have considered ROCKWELL AUTOMATION's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ROCKWELL AUTOMATION is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ROCKWELL AUTOMATION is based on 3 months time horizon.
ROCKWELL AUTOMATION Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ROCKWELL AUTOMATION is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ROCKWELL AUTOMATION backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ROCKWELL AUTOMATION, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.22 | 1.86 | 0.90 | 0.04 | 8 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
347.50 | 348.40 | 0.26 |
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ROCKWELL AUTOMATION Hype Timeline
ROCKWELL AUTOMATION is at this time traded for 347.50on Dusseldorf Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.9, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. ROCKWELL is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 348.4 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 45.37%. The price appreciation on the next news is anticipated to be 0.26%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.22%. The volatility of related hype on ROCKWELL AUTOMATION is about 1153.49%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 347.54. The company reported the revenue of 8.34 B. Net Income was 869 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next expected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ROCKWELL AUTOMATION to cross-verify your projections.ROCKWELL AUTOMATION Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ROCKWELL AUTOMATION's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ROCKWELL AUTOMATION's future price movements. Getting to know how ROCKWELL AUTOMATION's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ROCKWELL AUTOMATION may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| 26Y | YATRA ONLINE DL 0001 | 0.00 | 1 per month | 4.34 | (0.01) | 9.60 | (7.01) | 18.37 | |
| UUEC | United Utilities Group | (0.09) | 5 per month | 1.18 | (0) | 2.19 | (2.15) | 5.93 | |
| AP2 | Applied Materials | 2.60 | 8 per month | 2.13 | 0.16 | 4.92 | (3.77) | 14.53 | |
| CH5 | Chesapeake Utilities | (0.42) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.96 | (1.89) | 6.48 | |
| 4P7 | PACIFIC ONLINE | 0.00 | 7 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| IBU | IBU tec advanced materials | (0.40) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 6.57 | (7.69) | 24.36 | |
| MMX | Martin Marietta Materials | 3.60 | 11 per month | 1.55 | 0.02 | 2.17 | (2.63) | 8.88 | |
| VMC | Vulcan Materials | (4.00) | 7 per month | 1.42 | (0.02) | 2.44 | (2.36) | 7.69 |
Other Forecasting Options for ROCKWELL AUTOMATION
For every potential investor in ROCKWELL, whether a beginner or expert, ROCKWELL AUTOMATION's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ROCKWELL Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ROCKWELL. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ROCKWELL AUTOMATION's price trends.ROCKWELL AUTOMATION Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ROCKWELL AUTOMATION stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ROCKWELL AUTOMATION could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ROCKWELL AUTOMATION by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ROCKWELL AUTOMATION Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ROCKWELL AUTOMATION stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ROCKWELL AUTOMATION shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ROCKWELL AUTOMATION stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ROCKWELL AUTOMATION entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 347.5 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 347.5 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (5.30) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (10.60) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 52.64 |
ROCKWELL AUTOMATION Risk Indicators
The analysis of ROCKWELL AUTOMATION's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ROCKWELL AUTOMATION's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting rockwell stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.71 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.8 | |||
| Variance | 3.22 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.64 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.93 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.38) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ROCKWELL AUTOMATION
The number of cover stories for ROCKWELL AUTOMATION depends on current market conditions and ROCKWELL AUTOMATION's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ROCKWELL AUTOMATION is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ROCKWELL AUTOMATION's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for ROCKWELL Stock Analysis
When running ROCKWELL AUTOMATION's price analysis, check to measure ROCKWELL AUTOMATION's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ROCKWELL AUTOMATION is operating at the current time. Most of ROCKWELL AUTOMATION's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ROCKWELL AUTOMATION's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ROCKWELL AUTOMATION's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ROCKWELL AUTOMATION to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.