Precious Metals Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

Precious Metals Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Precious price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Precious using various technical indicators. When you analyze Precious charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur. A naive forecasting model for Precious Metals is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Precious Metals Fund value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Precious Metals Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Precious Metals Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 311.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.97, mean absolute percentage error of 38.60, and the sum of the absolute errors of 303.10.

Precious Metals Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Precious Metals Price Prediction

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Precious Metals Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Precious Metals mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Precious Metals mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Precious Metals Fund. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Precious Metals. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Precious Metals

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Precious Metals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 297.02 299.42 301.82 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 269.48 311.67 314.07 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 236.61 270.48 304.35 Details

Precious Metals After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

Precious Metals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

Precious Metals Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Precious Metals Hype Timeline

Precious Metals is at this time traded for 299.42. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -144.17, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -6.21. Precious is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 1.15%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.69%. %. The volatility of related hype on Precious Metals is about 26.65%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 293.21. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.2. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Precious Metals last dividend was issued on the 11th of December 2019. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Precious Metals to cross-verify your projections.

Precious Metals Related Hype Analysis

Other Forecasting Options for Precious Metals

For every potential investor in Precious, whether a beginner or expert, Precious Metals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Precious Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Precious. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Precious Metals' price trends.

Precious Metals Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Precious Metals Market Strength Events

Precious Metals Risk Indicators

Story Coverage note for Precious Metals

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