Energy Services Mutual Fund Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| RYVCX Fund | USD 211.70 1.36 0.65% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Energy Services Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 212.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 147.29. Energy Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Energy Services' share price is above 70 at this time indicating that the mutual fund is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Energy, making its price go up or down. Momentum 70
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Energy Services hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Energy Services Fund from the perspective of Energy Services response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Energy Services Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 212.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 147.29. Energy Services after-hype prediction price | USD 211.7 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Energy |
Energy Services Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Energy price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Energy using various technical indicators. When you analyze Energy charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Energy Services Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Energy Services Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 212.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.50, mean absolute percentage error of 11.46, and the sum of the absolute errors of 147.29.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Energy Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Energy Services' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Energy Services Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Energy Services | Energy Services Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Energy Services Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Energy Services' Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Energy Services' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 210.26 and 213.90, respectively. We have considered Energy Services' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Energy Services mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Energy Services mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.3063 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.4964 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0136 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 147.29 |
Predictive Modules for Energy Services
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Energy Services. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Energy Services' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Energy Services After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Energy Services at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Energy Services or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Energy Services, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Energy Services Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Energy Services' mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Energy Services' historical news coverage. Energy Services' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 209.88 and 213.52, respectively. We have considered Energy Services' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Energy Services is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Energy Services is based on 3 months time horizon.
Energy Services Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Energy Services is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Energy Services backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Energy Services, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.37 | 1.82 | 65.61 | 0.00 | 2 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
211.70 | 211.70 | 0.00 |
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Energy Services Hype Timeline
Energy Services is at this time traded for 211.70. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -65.61, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Energy is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 1.03%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.37%. %. The volatility of related hype on Energy Services is about 145600.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 211.70. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.81. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Energy Services last dividend was issued on the 10th of December 1970. The entity had 1-15 split on the 10th of August 2020. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Energy Services to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Energy Mutual Fund please use our How to Invest in Energy Services guide.Energy Services Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Energy Services' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Energy Services' future price movements. Getting to know how Energy Services' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Energy Services may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ICAXX | Dws Government Money | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| AEAXX | Ab Government Exchange | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| PFCXX | Putnam Money Market | 0.00 | 1 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| JRSXX | Edward Jones Money | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| SWGXX | Schwab Government Money | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| QCMMIX | Cref Money Market | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (5.48) | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 | |
| ELMXX | Elfun Government Money | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| SMAAX | Aig Government Money | (0.01) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.94) | 0.20 | (0.10) | 0.48 |
Other Forecasting Options for Energy Services
For every potential investor in Energy, whether a beginner or expert, Energy Services' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Energy Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Energy. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Energy Services' price trends.Energy Services Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Energy Services mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Energy Services could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Energy Services by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Energy Services Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Energy Services mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Energy Services shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Energy Services mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Energy Services Fund entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 211.7 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 211.7 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.68 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.36 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 70.21 |
Energy Services Risk Indicators
The analysis of Energy Services' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Energy Services' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting energy mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.33 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.43 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.82 | |||
| Variance | 3.32 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.39 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.03 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.46) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Energy Services
The number of cover stories for Energy Services depends on current market conditions and Energy Services' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Energy Services is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Energy Services' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Energy Mutual Fund
Energy Services financial ratios help investors to determine whether Energy Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Energy with respect to the benefits of owning Energy Services security.
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