Safilo Group Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| SAFLY Stock | USD 4.00 0.00 0.00% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Safilo Group SpA on the next trading day is expected to be 4.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.61. Safilo Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time The relative strength index (RSI) of Safilo Group's share price is above 80 . This usually implies that the pink sheet is significantly overbought by investors. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 100
Buy Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Safilo Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Safilo Group SpA from the perspective of Safilo Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Safilo Group SpA on the next trading day is expected to be 4.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.61. Safilo Group after-hype prediction price | USD 4.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Safilo |
Safilo Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Safilo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Safilo using various technical indicators. When you analyze Safilo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Safilo Group Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Safilo Group SpA on the next trading day is expected to be 4.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.61.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Safilo Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Safilo Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Safilo Group Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Safilo Group | Safilo Group Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Safilo Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Safilo Group's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Safilo Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.75 and 6.25, respectively. We have considered Safilo Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Safilo Group pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Safilo Group pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.1897 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0102 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0102 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0025 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.61 |
Predictive Modules for Safilo Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Safilo Group SpA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Safilo Group After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Safilo Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Safilo Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Safilo Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Safilo Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Safilo Group's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Safilo Group's historical news coverage. Safilo Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.75 and 6.25, respectively. We have considered Safilo Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Safilo Group is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Safilo Group SpA is based on 3 months time horizon.
Safilo Group Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Safilo Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Safilo Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Safilo Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.28 | 2.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
4.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 |
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Safilo Group Hype Timeline
Safilo Group SpA is at this time traded for 4.00. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Safilo is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.28%. %. The volatility of related hype on Safilo Group is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.00. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.71. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Safilo Group SpA last dividend was issued on the 29th of October 2021. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next expected press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Safilo Group to cross-verify your projections.Safilo Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Safilo Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Safilo Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Safilo Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Safilo Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PBHDF | Paramount Bed Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| NWKHY | Netcare Ltd ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| GNMLF | Genomma Lab Internacional | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| TGLVY | Top Glove | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.24 | 0 | 13.73 | (10.94) | 42.79 | |
| RHKJF | RHN KLINIKUM Aktiengesellschaft | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| EXETF | Extendicare | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.72 | 0.23 | 2.92 | (1.85) | 16.28 | |
| RKAGY | Rhoen Klinikum AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.12 | |
| NNCSF | Nanosonics Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.92 | (3.70) | 17.59 | |
| TDVXF | Tobii Dynavox AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.32 | (4.39) | 14.81 | |
| LTGHF | Life Healthcare Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for Safilo Group
For every potential investor in Safilo, whether a beginner or expert, Safilo Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Safilo Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Safilo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Safilo Group's price trends.Safilo Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Safilo Group pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Safilo Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Safilo Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Safilo Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Safilo Group pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Safilo Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Safilo Group pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Safilo Group SpA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Safilo Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Safilo Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Safilo Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting safilo pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5535 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.25 | |||
| Variance | 5.06 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Safilo Group
The number of cover stories for Safilo Group depends on current market conditions and Safilo Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Safilo Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Safilo Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Safilo Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Safilo Group's price analysis, check to measure Safilo Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Safilo Group is operating at the current time. Most of Safilo Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Safilo Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Safilo Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Safilo Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.