Sage Therapeutics Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SAGEDelisted Stock | USD 8.68 0.00 0.00% |
Sage Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Sage Therapeutics stock prices and determine the direction of Sage Therapeutics's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Sage Therapeutics' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The value of RSI of Sage Therapeutics' share price is at 55. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Sage Therapeutics, making its price go up or down. Momentum 55
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Sage Therapeutics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Sage Therapeutics from the perspective of Sage Therapeutics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sage Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 9.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.11. Sage Therapeutics after-hype prediction price | USD 8.68 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as delisted stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Sage Therapeutics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Sage price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Sage using various technical indicators. When you analyze Sage charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Sage Therapeutics Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sage Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 9.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28, mean absolute percentage error of 0.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.11.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sage Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sage Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Sage Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Sage Therapeutics | Sage Therapeutics Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sage Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sage Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.2447 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2805 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0356 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 17.1101 |
Predictive Modules for Sage Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sage Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sage Therapeutics After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Sage Therapeutics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Sage Therapeutics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Sage Therapeutics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Sage Therapeutics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Sage Therapeutics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Sage Therapeutics' historical news coverage. Sage Therapeutics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.68 and 8.68, respectively. We have considered Sage Therapeutics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Sage Therapeutics is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Sage Therapeutics is based on 3 months time horizon.
Sage Therapeutics Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Sage Therapeutics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Sage Therapeutics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Delisted Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Sage Therapeutics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
8.68 | 8.68 | 0.00 |
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Sage Therapeutics Hype Timeline
Sage Therapeutics is at this time traded for 8.68. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Sage is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Sage Therapeutics is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.68. About 84.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.48. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Sage Therapeutics has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.74. The entity recorded a loss per share of 4.89. The firm had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 3 days. Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as various price indices.Sage Therapeutics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Sage Therapeutics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Sage Therapeutics' future price movements. Getting to know how Sage Therapeutics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Sage Therapeutics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IVVD | Invivyd | (0.10) | 10 per month | 5.96 | 0.04 | 14.95 | (9.43) | 46.37 | |
| RGLS | Regulus Therapeutics | (0.10) | 6 per month | 1.47 | 0.20 | 15.42 | (5.33) | 140.81 | |
| ITOS | Iteos Therapeutics | (0.09) | 8 per month | 0.43 | (0.11) | 1.09 | (0.79) | 3.17 | |
| SPRY | ARS Pharmaceuticals | (0.16) | 8 per month | 4.43 | 0.02 | 8.29 | (8.73) | 32.13 | |
| EXAI | Exscientia Ltd ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| CLYM | Climb Bio | (0.40) | 6 per month | 5.14 | 0.17 | 14.49 | (8.85) | 42.56 | |
| RVNC | Revance Therapeutics | 0.01 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 6.38 | (5.97) | 40.39 | |
| SVA | Sinovac Biotech | 0.00 | 5 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| NAGE | Niagen Bioscience | (0.02) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.80 | (4.07) | 10.16 | |
| IKNA | IKNA Old | (0.10) | 11 per month | 2.90 | 0.07 | 6.72 | (3.94) | 18.39 |
Sage Therapeutics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sage Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sage Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sage Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Sage Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sage Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sage Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sage Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Sage Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Sage Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Sage Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sage Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sage stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.96 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.7 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.76 | |||
| Variance | 22.7 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.06 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.88 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.63) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Sage Therapeutics
The number of cover stories for Sage Therapeutics depends on current market conditions and Sage Therapeutics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Sage Therapeutics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Sage Therapeutics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Sage Therapeutics Short Properties
Sage Therapeutics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Sage Therapeutics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Sage Therapeutics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Sage Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Sage Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 60.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 504.4 M |
Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as various price indices. You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.
Other Consideration for investing in Sage Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Sage Therapeutics check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Sage Therapeutics' history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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