Saniona AB Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| SANION Stock | SEK 24.70 1.70 7.39% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Saniona AB on the next trading day is expected to be 24.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.58 and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.20. Saniona Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Saniona AB stock prices and determine the direction of Saniona AB's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Saniona AB's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time the value of rsi of Saniona AB's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Saniona AB hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Saniona AB from the perspective of Saniona AB response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Saniona AB on the next trading day is expected to be 24.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.58 and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.20. Saniona AB after-hype prediction price | SEK 24.7 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Saniona |
Saniona AB Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Saniona price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Saniona using various technical indicators. When you analyze Saniona charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Saniona AB Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Saniona AB on the next trading day is expected to be 24.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.58, mean absolute percentage error of 0.59, and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.20.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Saniona Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Saniona AB's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Saniona AB Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Saniona AB | Saniona AB Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Saniona AB Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Saniona AB's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Saniona AB's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 20.72 and 28.68, respectively. We have considered Saniona AB's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Saniona AB stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Saniona AB stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.58 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1669 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.577 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0306 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 35.2 |
Predictive Modules for Saniona AB
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Saniona AB. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Saniona AB After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Saniona AB at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Saniona AB or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Saniona AB, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Saniona AB Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Saniona AB's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Saniona AB's historical news coverage. Saniona AB's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 20.72 and 28.68, respectively. We have considered Saniona AB's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Saniona AB is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Saniona AB is based on 3 months time horizon.
Saniona AB Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Saniona AB is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Saniona AB backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Saniona AB, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.96 | 3.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
24.70 | 24.70 | 0.00 |
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Saniona AB Hype Timeline
Saniona AB is at this time traded for 24.70on Stockholm Exchange of Sweden. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Saniona is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.96%. %. The volatility of related hype on Saniona AB is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.70. About 23.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The book value of Saniona AB was at this time reported as 1.46. The company recorded a loss per share of 7.39. Saniona AB had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 73:71 split on the 4th of June 2019. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next estimated press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Saniona AB to cross-verify your projections.Saniona AB Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Saniona AB's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Saniona AB's future price movements. Getting to know how Saniona AB's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Saniona AB may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EGTX | Egetis Therapeutics AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 5.99 | (6.36) | 26.45 | |
| BINV | BioInvent International AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.71 | (0.01) | 7.07 | (4.65) | 19.40 | |
| HUM | Humana AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.20 | 0.1 | 2.88 | (2.12) | 12.13 | |
| VICO | Vicore Pharma Holding | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.34 | 0.02 | 5.52 | (4.01) | 21.61 | |
| DMYD-B | Diamyd Medical AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.15 | 0.07 | 6.42 | (3.79) | 22.62 | |
| GENO | Genovis AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.13 | (0.02) | 3.16 | (3.85) | 10.59 | |
| STIL | Stille AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.28 | (3.85) | 9.59 | |
| SYNACT | SynAct Pharma AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.99 | (3.55) | 12.89 | |
| DVYSR | Devyser Diagnostics AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 3.24 | (5.24) | 14.27 | |
| ONCO | Oncopeptides AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 7.87 | (6.90) | 29.44 |
Other Forecasting Options for Saniona AB
For every potential investor in Saniona, whether a beginner or expert, Saniona AB's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Saniona Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Saniona. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Saniona AB's price trends.Saniona AB Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Saniona AB stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Saniona AB could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Saniona AB by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Saniona AB Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Saniona AB stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Saniona AB shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Saniona AB stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Saniona AB entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 89204.27 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.9714 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.07 | |||
| Day Median Price | 23.93 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 24.18 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.62 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.7 |
Saniona AB Risk Indicators
The analysis of Saniona AB's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Saniona AB's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting saniona stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.94 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.03 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.97 | |||
| Variance | 15.78 | |||
| Downside Variance | 14.62 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.2 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.33) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Saniona AB
The number of cover stories for Saniona AB depends on current market conditions and Saniona AB's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Saniona AB is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Saniona AB's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Saniona AB Short Properties
Saniona AB's future price predictability will typically decrease when Saniona AB's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Saniona AB often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Saniona AB's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Saniona AB's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 62.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 356.9 M |
Other Information on Investing in Saniona Stock
Saniona AB financial ratios help investors to determine whether Saniona Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Saniona with respect to the benefits of owning Saniona AB security.