Santhera Pharmaceuticals Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| SANN Stock | CHF 12.64 0.14 1.10% |
Santhera Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The value of RSI of Santhera Pharmaceuticals' share price is at 52. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Santhera Pharmaceuticals, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Santhera Pharmaceuticals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Santhera Pharmaceuticals Holding from the perspective of Santhera Pharmaceuticals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Santhera Pharmaceuticals Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 12.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.06. Santhera Pharmaceuticals after-hype prediction price | CHF 12.64 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Santhera |
Santhera Pharmaceuticals Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Santhera price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Santhera using various technical indicators. When you analyze Santhera charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Santhera Pharmaceuticals Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Santhera Pharmaceuticals Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 12.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28, mean absolute percentage error of 0.17, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.06.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Santhera Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Santhera Pharmaceuticals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Santhera Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Santhera Pharmaceuticals | Santhera Pharmaceuticals Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Santhera Pharmaceuticals Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Santhera Pharmaceuticals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Santhera Pharmaceuticals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.15 and 16.13, respectively. We have considered Santhera Pharmaceuticals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Santhera Pharmaceuticals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Santhera Pharmaceuticals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.36 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0377 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2797 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0224 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 17.06 |
Predictive Modules for Santhera Pharmaceuticals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Santhera Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Santhera Pharmaceuticals After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Santhera Pharmaceuticals at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Santhera Pharmaceuticals or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Santhera Pharmaceuticals, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Santhera Pharmaceuticals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Santhera Pharmaceuticals' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Santhera Pharmaceuticals' historical news coverage. Santhera Pharmaceuticals' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.15 and 16.13, respectively. We have considered Santhera Pharmaceuticals' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Santhera Pharmaceuticals is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Santhera Pharmaceuticals is based on 3 months time horizon.
Santhera Pharmaceuticals Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Santhera Pharmaceuticals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Santhera Pharmaceuticals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Santhera Pharmaceuticals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.41 | 3.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
12.64 | 12.64 | 0.00 |
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Santhera Pharmaceuticals Hype Timeline
Santhera Pharmaceuticals is at this time traded for 12.64on SIX Swiss Exchange of Switzerland. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Santhera is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.41%. %. The volatility of related hype on Santhera Pharmaceuticals is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.64. About 19.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.63. Santhera Pharmaceuticals last dividend was issued on the 8th of September 2022. The entity had 10:1 split on the 2nd of July 2023. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Santhera Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections.Santhera Pharmaceuticals Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Santhera Pharmaceuticals' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Santhera Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. Getting to know how Santhera Pharmaceuticals' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Santhera Pharmaceuticals may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MOLN | Molecular Partners AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.31 | 0.05 | 7.50 | (5.28) | 22.81 | |
| ASCN | Ascom Holding AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.23 | 0.20 | 6.44 | (2.58) | 19.19 | |
| ADXN | Addex Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 6.56 | (6.90) | 17.23 | |
| EVE | Evolva Holding SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.75 | (0) | 8.00 | (7.14) | 26.00 | |
| NWRN | Newron Pharmaceuticals SpA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.87 | 0.13 | 6.92 | (5.30) | 21.18 | |
| SHLTN | S H L | 0.00 | 0 per month | 6.72 | 0.11 | 18.97 | (9.37) | 92.47 | |
| DOCM | DocMorris AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.43 | 0.02 | 7.96 | (5.59) | 21.23 | |
| CLTN | Coltene Holding AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.77 | 0.12 | 3.78 | (2.45) | 11.91 |
Other Forecasting Options for Santhera Pharmaceuticals
For every potential investor in Santhera, whether a beginner or expert, Santhera Pharmaceuticals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Santhera Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Santhera. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Santhera Pharmaceuticals' price trends.Santhera Pharmaceuticals Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Santhera Pharmaceuticals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Santhera Pharmaceuticals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Santhera Pharmaceuticals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Santhera Pharmaceuticals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Santhera Pharmaceuticals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Santhera Pharmaceuticals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Santhera Pharmaceuticals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Santhera Pharmaceuticals Holding entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 3906.3 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.25) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 12.76 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 12.72 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.19) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.14) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 52.13 |
Santhera Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
The analysis of Santhera Pharmaceuticals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Santhera Pharmaceuticals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting santhera stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.35 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.19 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.4 | |||
| Variance | 11.58 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.09 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.81 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.93) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Santhera Pharmaceuticals
The number of cover stories for Santhera Pharmaceuticals depends on current market conditions and Santhera Pharmaceuticals' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Santhera Pharmaceuticals is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Santhera Pharmaceuticals' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Santhera Pharmaceuticals Short Properties
Santhera Pharmaceuticals' future price predictability will typically decrease when Santhera Pharmaceuticals' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Santhera Pharmaceuticals Holding often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Santhera Pharmaceuticals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Santhera Pharmaceuticals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 13.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 21.2 M |
Additional Tools for Santhera Stock Analysis
When running Santhera Pharmaceuticals' price analysis, check to measure Santhera Pharmaceuticals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Santhera Pharmaceuticals is operating at the current time. Most of Santhera Pharmaceuticals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Santhera Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Santhera Pharmaceuticals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Santhera Pharmaceuticals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.