Standard Bank Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

A naive forecasting model for Standard Bank is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Standard Bank Group value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Standard Bank Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Standard Bank Group on the next trading day is expected to be 23,444 with a mean absolute deviation of 314.65, mean absolute percentage error of 142,690, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19,194.

Standard Bank Stock Forecast Pattern

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Standard Bank stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Standard Bank stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Standard Bank Group. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Standard Bank. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Standard Bank

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Standard Bank Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 23,710 23,711 23,712 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 20,444 20,445 26,082 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 23,681 24,162 24,642 Details

Other Forecasting Options for Standard Bank

For every potential investor in Standard, whether a beginner or expert, Standard Bank's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Standard Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Standard. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Standard Bank's price trends.

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Risk & Return

Correlation

Standard Bank Group Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Standard Bank's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Standard Bank's current price.

Standard Bank Market Strength Events

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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

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