ProShares UltraShort ETF Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| SCO ETF | USD 6.91 -0.08 -1.14% |
ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg's Polynomial Regression forecast is generated from the selected price series and evaluated against observed values. Forecast accuracy depends on how stable the recent price trend has been — trending markets suit some models better than others. The forecast is recalculated with each session so it does not rely on stale inputs. A small Bias confirms the model is not systematically over- or under-predicting. The Polynomial Regression model projects ProShares UltraShort at 6.46 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. All values shown are model-generated projections and should be evaluated alongside other analytical inputs.
Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 11th of May 2026
Over a 90-day horizon, the Polynomial Regression model forecasts ProShares UltraShort at 6.46 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.05 , and sum of absolute errors of 31.47 .This indicates moderate forecast accuracy — the model captures the general trend but not all short-term variation in ProShares UltraShort's price. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
ETF Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ProShares UltraShort | ProShares UltraShort Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The projected range for ProShares UltraShort reflects the model's ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios for the next trading day. The projected band runs from roughly 1.88 on the downside to about 11.03 on the upside. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the Polynomial Regression model's error metrics for ProShares UltraShort ETF. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.2707 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5159 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0544 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 31.4686 |
Other Forecasting Options for ProShares UltraShort
Bollinger Bands applied to ProShares ETF price data measure how far ProShares has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to ProShares UltraShort's price data. On-balance volume for ProShares ETF creates a running indicator of buying versus selling pressure in ProShares. Price departures from the channel boundary often mean-revert, offering tactical signals for ProShares UltraShort's.ProShares UltraShort Comparable Funds
The instruments listed below are comparable funds for ProShares UltraShort and provide a practical reference set. Looking across similar funds helps show whether ProShares UltraShort's pricing and risk profile are typical for the category. Differences across peer funds often reflect mandate, region, income policy, or leverage choices.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ProShares UltraShort Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for ProShares UltraShort quantify how the ETF responds to shifts in volume and sentiment. These indicators capture shifts in momentum that may precede significant price moves in ProShares UltraShort. The Market Facilitation Index measures how efficiently price moves relative to volume — rising MFI with rising volume signals strong trend participation. Monitoring these indicators for ProShares UltraShort through complete market cycles reveals recurring patterns.
ProShares UltraShort Risk Indicators
Analyzing ProShares UltraShort's risk indicators separates symmetric price swings from asymmetric downside exposure. Understanding and quantifying the risks present in ProShares UltraShort helps place recent price behavior in context. These metrics are most informative when compared against similar equities with comparable growth profiles and market capitalization. When semi-deviation is high relative to standard deviation, ProShares UltraShort's losses have been disproportionately large compared to gains.
| Mean Deviation | 3.42 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.53 | |||
| Variance | 20.49 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.