SunCar Technology Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| SDA Stock | 1.98 0.02 1.00% |
SunCar Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast SunCar Technology stock prices and determine the direction of SunCar Technology Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of SunCar Technology's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of SunCar Technology's share price is approaching 48. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling SunCar Technology, making its price go up or down. Momentum 48
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.04 | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.03) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.275 | Wall Street Target Price 7.1667 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.02 |
Using SunCar Technology hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of SunCar Technology Group from the perspective of SunCar Technology response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of SunCar Technology Group on the next trading day is expected to be 1.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.04. SunCar Technology after-hype prediction price | USD 1.98 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SunCar Technology to cross-verify your projections. SunCar Technology Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine SunCar price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for SunCar using various technical indicators. When you analyze SunCar charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
SunCar Technology Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of SunCar Technology Group on the next trading day is expected to be 1.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.04.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SunCar Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SunCar Technology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
SunCar Technology Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest SunCar Technology | SunCar Technology Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
SunCar Technology Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting SunCar Technology's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. SunCar Technology's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 4.56, respectively. We have considered SunCar Technology's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SunCar Technology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SunCar Technology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.2825 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.002 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.034 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0172 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.04 |
Predictive Modules for SunCar Technology
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SunCar Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of SunCar Technology's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
SunCar Technology After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of SunCar Technology at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in SunCar Technology or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of SunCar Technology, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
SunCar Technology Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting SunCar Technology's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on SunCar Technology's historical news coverage. SunCar Technology's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.10 and 4.56, respectively. We have considered SunCar Technology's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
SunCar Technology is risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of SunCar Technology is based on 3 months time horizon.
SunCar Technology Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as SunCar Technology is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading SunCar Technology backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with SunCar Technology, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 2.58 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 5 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.98 | 1.98 | 0.00 |
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SunCar Technology Hype Timeline
On the 1st of February SunCar Technology is traded for 1.98. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. SunCar is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.1%. %. The volatility of related hype on SunCar Technology is about 921.43%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.95. About 40.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.11. SunCar Technology had not issued any dividends in recent years. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SunCar Technology to cross-verify your projections.SunCar Technology Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to SunCar Technology's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict SunCar Technology's future price movements. Getting to know how SunCar Technology's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how SunCar Technology may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CRMT | Americas Car Mart | (0.58) | 9 per month | 3.42 | 0.03 | 7.71 | (5.55) | 18.39 | |
| SRI | Stoneridge | (0.14) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.64 | (4.11) | 18.36 | |
| BZUN | Baozun Inc | (0.17) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 4.10 | (4.17) | 11.42 | |
| LOGC | Contextlogic | (1.77) | 3 per month | 1.44 | 0.02 | 4.12 | (2.80) | 9.27 | |
| MSC | Studio City International | 0.01 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 7.67 | (7.93) | 25.28 | |
| CALI | iShares Short Term California | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.92) | 0.06 | (0.06) | 0.16 | |
| DBI | Designer Brands | 0.14 | 9 per month | 3.63 | 0.13 | 10.60 | (6.37) | 57.50 | |
| SEV | Aptera Motors Corp | 0.1 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 8.79 | (14.25) | 51.99 | |
| JAKK | JAKKS Pacific | 0.27 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 4.74 | (4.54) | 11.05 | |
| HBB | Hamilton Beach Brands | (0.66) | 7 per month | 1.88 | 0.14 | 5.68 | (3.74) | 17.33 |
Other Forecasting Options for SunCar Technology
For every potential investor in SunCar, whether a beginner or expert, SunCar Technology's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. SunCar Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in SunCar. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying SunCar Technology's price trends.SunCar Technology Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with SunCar Technology stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of SunCar Technology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing SunCar Technology by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
SunCar Technology Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how SunCar Technology stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading SunCar Technology shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying SunCar Technology stock market strength indicators, traders can identify SunCar Technology Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
SunCar Technology Risk Indicators
The analysis of SunCar Technology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in SunCar Technology's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting suncar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.95 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.57 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.0 | |||
| Variance | 9.02 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.62 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.6 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.08) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for SunCar Technology
The number of cover stories for SunCar Technology depends on current market conditions and SunCar Technology's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that SunCar Technology is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about SunCar Technology's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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SunCar Technology Short Properties
SunCar Technology's future price predictability will typically decrease when SunCar Technology's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of SunCar Technology Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential SunCar Technology's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. SunCar Technology's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 96 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 47.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SunCar Technology to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.
Is Diversified Consumer Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of SunCar Technology. If investors know SunCar will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive SunCar Technology assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Earnings Share (0.11) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.056 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
Understanding SunCar Technology requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects SunCar's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what SunCar Technology's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push SunCar Technology's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between SunCar Technology's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if SunCar Technology is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, SunCar Technology's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.