Serco Group Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SECCF Stock | USD 3.54 0.00 0.00% |
Serco Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Serco Group's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 29th of January 2026, The relative strength index (RSI) of Serco Group's share price is at 52. This usually implies that the pink sheet is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Serco Group, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Serco Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Serco Group plc from the perspective of Serco Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Serco Group plc on the next trading day is expected to be 3.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.52. Serco Group after-hype prediction price | USD 3.54 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Serco |
Serco Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Serco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Serco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Serco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Serco Group Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Serco Group plc on the next trading day is expected to be 3.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.52.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Serco Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Serco Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Serco Group Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Serco Group | Serco Group Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Serco Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Serco Group's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Serco Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.00 and 5.15, respectively. We have considered Serco Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Serco Group pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Serco Group pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.3858 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0413 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0121 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.5201 |
Predictive Modules for Serco Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Serco Group plc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Serco Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Serco Group After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Serco Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Serco Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Serco Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Serco Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Serco Group's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Serco Group's historical news coverage. Serco Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.94 and 5.14, respectively. We have considered Serco Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Serco Group is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Serco Group plc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Serco Group Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Serco Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Serco Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Serco Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 1.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
3.54 | 3.54 | 0.00 |
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Serco Group Hype Timeline
Serco Group plc is at this time traded for 3.54. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Serco is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.09%. %. The volatility of related hype on Serco Group is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.54. About 81.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.79. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Serco Group plc last dividend was issued on the 8th of September 2022. The entity had 163:132 split on the 31st of March 2015. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Serco Group to cross-verify your projections.Serco Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Serco Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Serco Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Serco Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Serco Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MITFF | Mitie Group plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.60 | 0.08 | 5.13 | (3.78) | 16.69 | |
| MITFY | Mitie Group Plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.08 | 0.04 | 2.40 | (2.30) | 6.04 | |
| TCCPY | TechnoPro Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 5.31 | (5.08) | 12.42 | |
| TXHPF | TechnoPro Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| TLPFY | Teleperformance PK | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.63 | (4.00) | 12.58 | |
| JSGRY | Lixil Group Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.78 | (0.02) | 5.30 | (4.45) | 16.01 | |
| ISFFF | ISS AS | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.54 | |
| NCTKY | Nabtesco | 0.00 | 0 per month | 8.66 | 0.03 | 26.17 | (19.02) | 67.49 | |
| TLPFF | Teleperformance SE | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 4.58 | (6.01) | 15.52 | |
| QRNNF | Aurizon Holdings Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 18.40 |
Other Forecasting Options for Serco Group
For every potential investor in Serco, whether a beginner or expert, Serco Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Serco Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Serco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Serco Group's price trends.Serco Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Serco Group pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Serco Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Serco Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Serco Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Serco Group pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Serco Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Serco Group pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Serco Group plc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Serco Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Serco Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Serco Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting serco pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7442 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.08 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.74 | |||
| Variance | 3.04 | |||
| Downside Variance | 15.03 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.18 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.63) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Serco Group
The number of cover stories for Serco Group depends on current market conditions and Serco Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Serco Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Serco Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Serco Pink Sheet
Serco Group financial ratios help investors to determine whether Serco Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Serco with respect to the benefits of owning Serco Group security.