Smithfield Foods Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| SFD Stock | 23.65 0.13 0.55% |
Smithfield Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Smithfield Foods stock prices and determine the direction of Smithfield Foods Common's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Smithfield Foods' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Smithfield Foods' stock price is about 60. This usually implies that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Smithfield, making its price go up or down. Momentum 60
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.18) | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.3811 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.3762 | Wall Street Target Price 29.3571 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.124 |
Using Smithfield Foods hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Smithfield Foods Common from the perspective of Smithfield Foods response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Smithfield Foods using Smithfield Foods' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Smithfield using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Smithfield Foods' stock price.
Smithfield Foods Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Smithfield Foods' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Smithfield. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Smithfield Foods stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 22.9104 | Short Percent 0.1158 | Short Ratio 3.56 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.6 M | 50 Day MA 22.193 |
Smithfield Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Smithfield Foods Common on the next trading day is expected to be 23.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.42.Smithfield Foods Common Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Smithfield Foods' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Smithfield. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Smithfield can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Smithfield Foods Common. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Smithfield Foods' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Smithfield Foods.
Smithfield Foods Implied Volatility | 0.58 |
Smithfield Foods' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Smithfield Foods Common stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Smithfield Foods' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Smithfield Foods stock will not fluctuate a lot when Smithfield Foods' options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Smithfield Foods Common on the next trading day is expected to be 23.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.42. Smithfield Foods after-hype prediction price | USD 23.77 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Smithfield contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Smithfield Foods Common will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0363% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Smithfield Foods trading at USD 23.65, that is roughly USD 0.008573 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Smithfield Foods' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Smithfield Foods Common options at the current volatility level of 0.58%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Smithfield Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Smithfield Foods' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Smithfield Foods' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Smithfield Foods stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Smithfield Foods' open interest, investors have to compare it to Smithfield Foods' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Smithfield Foods is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Smithfield. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Smithfield Foods Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Smithfield price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Smithfield using various technical indicators. When you analyze Smithfield charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Smithfield Foods Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Smithfield Foods Common on the next trading day is expected to be 23.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.42.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Smithfield Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Smithfield Foods' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Smithfield Foods Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Smithfield Foods | Smithfield Foods Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Smithfield Foods Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Smithfield Foods' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Smithfield Foods' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.63 and 24.83, respectively. We have considered Smithfield Foods' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Smithfield Foods stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Smithfield Foods stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0448 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1936 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0087 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.421 |
Predictive Modules for Smithfield Foods
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Smithfield Foods Common. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Smithfield Foods After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Smithfield Foods at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Smithfield Foods or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Smithfield Foods, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Smithfield Foods Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Smithfield Foods' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Smithfield Foods' historical news coverage. Smithfield Foods' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 22.66 and 24.88, respectively. We have considered Smithfield Foods' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Smithfield Foods is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Smithfield Foods Common is based on 3 months time horizon.
Smithfield Foods Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Smithfield Foods is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Smithfield Foods backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Smithfield Foods, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 1.10 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
23.65 | 23.77 | 0.04 |
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Smithfield Foods Hype Timeline
On the 28th of January Smithfield Foods Common is traded for 23.65. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. Smithfield is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 23.77. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.13%. The volatility of related hype on Smithfield Foods is about 311.32%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 23.60. About 88.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.38. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Smithfield Foods Common has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.21. The entity last dividend was issued on the 13th of November 2025. The firm had 2:1 split on the September 17, 2001. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Smithfield Foods to cross-verify your projections.Smithfield Foods Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Smithfield Foods' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Smithfield Foods' future price movements. Getting to know how Smithfield Foods' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Smithfield Foods may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CAG | ConAgra Foods | 0.48 | 7 per month | 1.74 | (0.05) | 2.63 | (2.54) | 7.17 | |
| PPC | Pilgrims Pride Corp | 0.55 | 10 per month | 1.39 | 0.08 | 3.22 | (1.79) | 8.77 | |
| TAP | Molson Coors Brewing | 1.36 | 8 per month | 1.65 | 0.01 | 3.30 | (2.55) | 8.40 | |
| CPB | Campbells Co | (0.07) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.28 | (3.12) | 8.15 | |
| SFM | Sprouts Farmers Market | (6.04) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 3.16 | (3.68) | 26.63 | |
| ACI | Albertsons Companies | 0.03 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 2.47 | (2.12) | 8.43 | |
| LW | Lamb Weston Holdings | 0.02 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 2.51 | (2.96) | 30.35 | |
| INGR | Ingredion Incorporated | 0.66 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.26 | (1.63) | 6.05 | |
| EDU | New Oriental Education | (0.17) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.07 | (3.35) | 8.57 |
Other Forecasting Options for Smithfield Foods
For every potential investor in Smithfield, whether a beginner or expert, Smithfield Foods' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Smithfield Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Smithfield. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Smithfield Foods' price trends.Smithfield Foods Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Smithfield Foods stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Smithfield Foods could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Smithfield Foods by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Smithfield Foods Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Smithfield Foods stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Smithfield Foods shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Smithfield Foods stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Smithfield Foods Common entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 7644.5 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.48) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 23.71 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 23.69 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.12) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.13) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 60.83 |
Smithfield Foods Risk Indicators
The analysis of Smithfield Foods' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Smithfield Foods' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting smithfield stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9296 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9437 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.33 | |||
| Variance | 1.76 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.19 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.8905 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.08) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Smithfield Foods
The number of cover stories for Smithfield Foods depends on current market conditions and Smithfield Foods' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Smithfield Foods is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Smithfield Foods' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Smithfield Foods Short Properties
Smithfield Foods' future price predictability will typically decrease when Smithfield Foods' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Smithfield Foods Common often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Smithfield Foods' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Smithfield Foods' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 393.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 943 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Smithfield Foods to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
Is Packaged Foods & Meats space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Smithfield Foods. If investors know Smithfield will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Smithfield Foods listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.18) | Dividend Share 0.75 | Earnings Share 2.22 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.124 |
The market value of Smithfield Foods Common is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Smithfield that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Smithfield Foods' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Smithfield Foods' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Smithfield Foods' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Smithfield Foods' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Smithfield Foods' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Smithfield Foods is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Smithfield Foods' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.