Safeguard Scientifics OTC Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SFES Stock | 0.76 0.01 1.30% |
Safeguard OTC Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the value of RSI of Safeguard Scientifics' share price is approaching 44. This usually implies that the otc stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Safeguard Scientifics, making its price go up or down. Momentum 44
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
It is a matter of debate whether otc price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Safeguard Scientifics based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. Using Safeguard Scientifics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Safeguard Scientifics from the perspective of Safeguard Scientifics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Safeguard Scientifics on the next trading day is expected to be 0.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.92. Safeguard Scientifics after-hype prediction price | USD 1.2 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as otc price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Safeguard |
Safeguard Scientifics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Safeguard price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Safeguard using various technical indicators. When you analyze Safeguard charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Safeguard Scientifics Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Safeguard Scientifics on the next trading day is expected to be 0.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0006, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.92.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Safeguard OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Safeguard Scientifics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Safeguard Scientifics OTC Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Safeguard Scientifics | Safeguard Scientifics Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Safeguard Scientifics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Safeguard Scientifics' OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Safeguard Scientifics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 4.82, respectively. We have considered Safeguard Scientifics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Safeguard Scientifics otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Safeguard Scientifics otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.5784 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0149 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0193 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.9236 |
Predictive Modules for Safeguard Scientifics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Safeguard Scientifics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Safeguard Scientifics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Safeguard Scientifics After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Safeguard Scientifics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Safeguard Scientifics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of OTC Stock prices, such as prices of Safeguard Scientifics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Safeguard Scientifics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Safeguard Scientifics' otc stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Safeguard Scientifics' historical news coverage. Safeguard Scientifics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.06 and 5.26, respectively. We have considered Safeguard Scientifics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Safeguard Scientifics is extremely dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Safeguard Scientifics is based on 3 months time horizon.
Safeguard Scientifics OTC Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a OTC Stock such as Safeguard Scientifics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Safeguard Scientifics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the OTC price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Safeguard Scientifics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 4.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.76 | 1.19 | 56.32 |
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Safeguard Scientifics Hype Timeline
Safeguard Scientifics is at this time traded for 0.76. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Safeguard is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 1.188 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 56.32%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.14%. The volatility of related hype on Safeguard Scientifics is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.76. Safeguard Scientifics currently holds 10 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 3.72, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Safeguard Scientifics has a current ratio of 0.81, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Safeguard Scientifics until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Safeguard Scientifics' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Safeguard Scientifics sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Safeguard to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Safeguard Scientifics' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Safeguard Scientifics to cross-verify your projections.Safeguard Scientifics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Safeguard Scientifics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Safeguard Scientifics' future price movements. Getting to know how Safeguard Scientifics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Safeguard Scientifics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BLRZF | Blackhawk Growth Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 900.00 | |
| MONTF | Montfort Capital Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 279.36 | |
| RHCO | Readen Holding Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 16.67 | (17.86) | 47.45 | |
| HCGI | Huntwicke Capital Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| SNTX | Suntex Enterprises | 0.00 | 0 per month | 15.17 | 0.18 | 92.31 | (28.00) | 247.15 | |
| TRRPF | Torrent Capital | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10.28 | |
| PRPS | Propellus | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.38 | (0.03) | 3.03 | (2.78) | 13.57 | |
| MATEF | Blockmate Ventures | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.39 | 0.03 | 17.35 | (9.70) | 50.93 | |
| AHFCF | Flow Capital Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| PIAC | Princeton Capital | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 0.00 | (2.94) | 23.78 |
Other Forecasting Options for Safeguard Scientifics
For every potential investor in Safeguard, whether a beginner or expert, Safeguard Scientifics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Safeguard OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Safeguard. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Safeguard Scientifics' price trends.Safeguard Scientifics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Safeguard Scientifics otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Safeguard Scientifics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Safeguard Scientifics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Safeguard Scientifics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Safeguard Scientifics otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Safeguard Scientifics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Safeguard Scientifics otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Safeguard Scientifics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.76 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.76 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 44.1 |
Safeguard Scientifics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Safeguard Scientifics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Safeguard Scientifics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting safeguard otc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.75 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.87 | |||
| Variance | 15.01 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Safeguard Scientifics
The number of cover stories for Safeguard Scientifics depends on current market conditions and Safeguard Scientifics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Safeguard Scientifics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Safeguard Scientifics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Safeguard OTC Stock Analysis
When running Safeguard Scientifics' price analysis, check to measure Safeguard Scientifics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Safeguard Scientifics is operating at the current time. Most of Safeguard Scientifics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Safeguard Scientifics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Safeguard Scientifics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Safeguard Scientifics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.