Shin-Etsu Chemical Pink Sheet Forward View - Simple Regression

SHECF Stock  USD 32.08  1.41  4.21%   
Shin-Etsu Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Shin-Etsu Chemical's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 4th of February 2026, the relative strength index (RSI) of Shin-Etsu Chemical's share price is approaching 48. This usually implies that the pink sheet is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Shin-Etsu Chemical, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 48

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Shin-Etsu Chemical's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Shin-Etsu Chemical and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Shin-Etsu Chemical's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Shin Etsu Chemical Co, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Shin-Etsu Chemical hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Shin Etsu Chemical Co from the perspective of Shin-Etsu Chemical response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Shin Etsu Chemical Co on the next trading day is expected to be 35.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 86.03.

Shin-Etsu Chemical after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 32.08  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Shin-Etsu Chemical to cross-verify your projections.

Shin-Etsu Chemical Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Shin-Etsu price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Shin-Etsu using various technical indicators. When you analyze Shin-Etsu charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Shin-Etsu Chemical price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Shin-Etsu Chemical Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 5th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Shin Etsu Chemical Co on the next trading day is expected to be 35.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.39, mean absolute percentage error of 2.57, and the sum of the absolute errors of 86.03.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Shin-Etsu Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Shin-Etsu Chemical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Shin-Etsu Chemical Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest Shin-Etsu Chemical  Shin-Etsu Chemical Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Shin-Etsu Chemical Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Shin-Etsu Chemical's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Shin-Etsu Chemical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 29.93 and 40.39, respectively. We have considered Shin-Etsu Chemical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
32.08
35.16
Expected Value
40.39
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Shin-Etsu Chemical pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Shin-Etsu Chemical pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.8905
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.3876
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0437
SAESum of the absolute errors86.0332
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Shin Etsu Chemical Co historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Shin-Etsu Chemical

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Shin Etsu Chemical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Shin-Etsu Chemical's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
26.8132.0837.35
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
21.7827.0532.32
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
31.1934.3237.44
Details

Shin-Etsu Chemical After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Shin-Etsu Chemical at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Shin-Etsu Chemical or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Shin-Etsu Chemical, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Shin-Etsu Chemical Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Shin-Etsu Chemical's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Shin-Etsu Chemical's historical news coverage. Shin-Etsu Chemical's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 26.81 and 37.35, respectively. We have considered Shin-Etsu Chemical's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
32.08
32.08
After-hype Price
37.35
Upside
Shin-Etsu Chemical is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Shin Etsu Chemical is based on 3 months time horizon.

Shin-Etsu Chemical Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Shin-Etsu Chemical is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Shin-Etsu Chemical backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Shin-Etsu Chemical, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.29 
5.23
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Within a week
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
32.08
32.08
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Shin-Etsu Chemical Hype Timeline

Shin Etsu Chemical is at this time traded for 32.08. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Shin-Etsu is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.29%. %. The volatility of related hype on Shin-Etsu Chemical is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 32.08. About 61.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.92. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Shin Etsu Chemical recorded earning per share (EPS) of 12.37. The entity last dividend was issued on the 30th of March 2023. The firm had 21:20 split on the 26th of March 1996. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be within a week.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Shin-Etsu Chemical to cross-verify your projections.

Shin-Etsu Chemical Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Shin-Etsu Chemical's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Shin-Etsu Chemical's future price movements. Getting to know how Shin-Etsu Chemical's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Shin-Etsu Chemical may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
GMBXFGrupo Mxico SAB 0.00 0 per month 2.14  0.15  5.24 (3.31) 14.07 
BFFAFBASF SE NA 0.00 0 per month 1.17  0.07  6.07 (3.22) 11.12 
PTCAYChandra Asri Petrochemical 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
PTPIFPT Chandra Asri 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.13) 0.00  0.00  115.96 
BASFYBASF SE ADR 0.00 0 per month 1.48  0.07  3.01 (2.63) 7.04 
GLNCYGlencore PLC ADR 0.00 0 per month 1.23  0.25  4.25 (2.65) 12.19 
GLCNFGlencore PLC 0.00 0 per month 1.34  0.25  3.62 (2.44) 11.37 
GVDBFGivaudan SA 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.09) 4.22 (4.79) 14.39 
SKFOFSika AG 0.00 0 per month 1.99 (0.02) 2.78 (2.60) 16.75 
HCMLYLafargeholcim Ltd ADR 0.00 0 per month 1.06  0.13  2.44 (1.82) 6.93 

Other Forecasting Options for Shin-Etsu Chemical

For every potential investor in Shin-Etsu, whether a beginner or expert, Shin-Etsu Chemical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Shin-Etsu Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Shin-Etsu. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Shin-Etsu Chemical's price trends.

Shin-Etsu Chemical Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Shin-Etsu Chemical pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Shin-Etsu Chemical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Shin-Etsu Chemical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Shin-Etsu Chemical Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Shin-Etsu Chemical pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Shin-Etsu Chemical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Shin-Etsu Chemical pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Shin Etsu Chemical Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Shin-Etsu Chemical Risk Indicators

The analysis of Shin-Etsu Chemical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Shin-Etsu Chemical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting shin-etsu pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Shin-Etsu Chemical

The number of cover stories for Shin-Etsu Chemical depends on current market conditions and Shin-Etsu Chemical's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Shin-Etsu Chemical is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Shin-Etsu Chemical's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Shin-Etsu Pink Sheet

Shin-Etsu Chemical financial ratios help investors to determine whether Shin-Etsu Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Shin-Etsu with respect to the benefits of owning Shin-Etsu Chemical security.