Source Energy Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| SHLE Stock | CAD 16.43 0.21 1.29% |
Source Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Source Energy's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Source Energy's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Source Energy fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of Source Energy's share price is at 59. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Source Energy, making its price go up or down. Momentum 59
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.853 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.11 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.95 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.27 | Wall Street Target Price 17.75 |
Using Source Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Source Energy Services from the perspective of Source Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Source Energy Services on the next trading day is expected to be 16.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.99. Source Energy after-hype prediction price | CAD 16.42 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Source |
Source Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Source price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Source using various technical indicators. When you analyze Source charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Source Energy Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Source Energy Services on the next trading day is expected to be 16.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35, mean absolute percentage error of 0.23, and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.99.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Source Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Source Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Source Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Source Energy | Source Energy Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Source Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Source Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Source Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.11 and 19.81, respectively. We have considered Source Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Source Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Source Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0612 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3499 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0256 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 20.9939 |
Predictive Modules for Source Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Source Energy Services. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Source Energy After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Source Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Source Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Source Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Source Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Source Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Source Energy's historical news coverage. Source Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.07 and 19.77, respectively. We have considered Source Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Source Energy is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Source Energy Services is based on 3 months time horizon.
Source Energy Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Source Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Source Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Source Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.58 | 3.35 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 3 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
16.43 | 16.42 | 0.06 |
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Source Energy Hype Timeline
Source Energy Services is at this time traded for 16.43on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Source is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 16.42. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -0.06%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.58%. The volatility of related hype on Source Energy is about 47857.14%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.43. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.01. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Source Energy Services last dividend was issued on the 5th of January 2021. The entity had 1:12 split on the 5th of January 2021. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Source Energy to cross-verify your projections.Source Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Source Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Source Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Source Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Source Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ACX | ACT Energy Technologies | (0.11) | 4 per month | 2.81 | 0.05 | 4.63 | (5.00) | 12.63 | |
| PSD | Pulse Seismic | (0.01) | 1 per month | 2.37 | 0.05 | 4.68 | (2.95) | 12.36 | |
| GTE | Gran Tierra Energy | (0.01) | 6 per month | 3.49 | 0.12 | 6.28 | (4.52) | 23.82 | |
| RECO | Reconnaissance Energy Africa | 0.1 | 5 per month | 4.95 | 0.12 | 13.79 | (7.55) | 51.23 | |
| AEC | Anfield Resources | (0.01) | 1 per month | 5.39 | 0.07 | 13.70 | (8.55) | 27.48 | |
| HME | Hemisphere Energy | (0.01) | 3 per month | 1.90 | (0.02) | 3.05 | (2.79) | 12.29 | |
| KEI | Kolibri Global Energy | (0.01) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 4.24 | (3.85) | 10.68 | |
| MGA | Mega Uranium | 0.01 | 4 per month | 3.83 | 0.17 | 10.53 | (6.67) | 30.26 | |
| SEI | Sintana Energy | (0.01) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 6.00 | (5.66) | 32.08 | |
| TPL | Tethys Petroleum | (0.01) | 5 per month | 5.93 | 0.05 | 13.08 | (6.90) | 60.16 |
Other Forecasting Options for Source Energy
For every potential investor in Source, whether a beginner or expert, Source Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Source Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Source. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Source Energy's price trends.Source Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Source Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Source Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Source Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Source Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Source Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Source Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Source Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Source Energy Services entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Source Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of Source Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Source Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting source stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.39 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.88 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.32 | |||
| Variance | 11.05 | |||
| Downside Variance | 11.26 | |||
| Semi Variance | 8.31 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.59) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Source Energy
The number of cover stories for Source Energy depends on current market conditions and Source Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Source Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Source Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Source Energy Short Properties
Source Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Source Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Source Energy Services often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Source Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Source Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 13.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 32.7 M |
Other Information on Investing in Source Stock
Source Energy financial ratios help investors to determine whether Source Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Source with respect to the benefits of owning Source Energy security.