Health Biotchnology Mutual Fund Forward View
| SHPAX Fund | USD 21.84 0.23 1.06% |
Health Mutual Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Health Biotchnology's mutual fund price is slightly above 67. This usually implies that the mutual fund is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Health, making its price go up or down. Momentum 60
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Health Biotchnology hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Health Biotchnology Portfolio from the perspective of Health Biotchnology response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Health Biotchnology Portfolio on the next trading day is expected to be 21.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.35. Health Biotchnology after-hype prediction price | USD 21.86 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Health |
Health Biotchnology Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Health price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Health using various technical indicators. When you analyze Health charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Health Biotchnology Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Health Biotchnology Portfolio on the next trading day is expected to be 21.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.35.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Health Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Health Biotchnology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Health Biotchnology Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Health Biotchnology | Health Biotchnology Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Health Biotchnology Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Health Biotchnology's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Health Biotchnology's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.06 and 22.81, respectively. We have considered Health Biotchnology's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Health Biotchnology mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Health Biotchnology mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.0667 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1697 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0081 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.3519 |
Predictive Modules for Health Biotchnology
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Health Biotchnology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Health Biotchnology After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Health Biotchnology at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Health Biotchnology or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Health Biotchnology, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Health Biotchnology Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Health Biotchnology's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Health Biotchnology's historical news coverage. Health Biotchnology's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 20.99 and 22.73, respectively. We have considered Health Biotchnology's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Health Biotchnology is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Health Biotchnology is based on 3 months time horizon.
Health Biotchnology Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Health Biotchnology is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Health Biotchnology backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Health Biotchnology, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 0.87 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 1 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | Very soon |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
21.84 | 21.86 | 0.09 |
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Health Biotchnology Hype Timeline
Health Biotchnology is at this time traded for 21.84. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.2. Health is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 21.86 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.09%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.19%. The volatility of related hype on Health Biotchnology is about 81.73%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 22.04. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be very soon. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Health Biotchnology to cross-verify your projections.Health Biotchnology Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Health Biotchnology's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Health Biotchnology's future price movements. Getting to know how Health Biotchnology's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Health Biotchnology may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TWSMX | Strategic Allocation Moderate | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.30 | 0.09 | 0.95 | (0.78) | 6.76 | |
| AREVX | One Choice 2055 | 0.00 | 1 per month | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.94 | (0.87) | 14.41 | |
| BASAX | Brown Advisory Small Cap | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.50 | 0.12 | 2.18 | (1.58) | 24.99 | |
| BIASX | Brown Advisory Small Cap | 0.06 | 3 per month | 0.89 | 0.0003 | 2.14 | (1.58) | 4.30 | |
| TWSAX | Strategic Allocation Aggressive | 0.09 | 4 per month | 0.37 | 0.1 | 1.02 | (1.01) | 7.35 | |
| BCSAX | Blackrock Commodity Strategies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.10 | 0.16 | 1.65 | (1.54) | 6.22 | |
| STMGX | American Beacon Stephens | (0.16) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 1.45 | (1.76) | 3.71 | |
| NDASX | Nationwide Investor Destinations | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.60 | 0.03 | 1.07 | (1.17) | 2.71 | |
| AOGIX | One Choice Portfolio | 9.59 | 5 per month | 0.33 | 0.09 | 0.93 | (0.88) | 8.48 |
Other Forecasting Options for Health Biotchnology
For every potential investor in Health, whether a beginner or expert, Health Biotchnology's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Health Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Health. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Health Biotchnology's price trends.Health Biotchnology Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Health Biotchnology mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Health Biotchnology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Health Biotchnology by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Health Biotchnology Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Health Biotchnology mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Health Biotchnology shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Health Biotchnology mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Health Biotchnology Portfolio entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 21.84 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 21.84 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.12 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.23 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 60.71 |
Health Biotchnology Risk Indicators
The analysis of Health Biotchnology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Health Biotchnology's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting health mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.649 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.3842 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8509 | |||
| Variance | 0.724 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.5081 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.1476 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.76) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Health Biotchnology
The number of cover stories for Health Biotchnology depends on current market conditions and Health Biotchnology's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Health Biotchnology is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Health Biotchnology's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
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Other Information on Investing in Health Mutual Fund
Health Biotchnology financial ratios help investors to determine whether Health Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Health with respect to the benefits of owning Health Biotchnology security.
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