ProShares UltraShort ETF Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| SIJ ETF | USD 9.07 0.01 0.11% |
Double Exponential Smoothing is applied to ProShares UltraShort Industrials's daily closing prices, and the resulting forecast is presented with accuracy metrics. Wide deviation between fitted and observed values suggests the model's assumptions may not match current market conditions. These values update automatically with each new closing price. AIC measures relative model quality — lower AIC values indicate a better-fitting model. The Double Exponential Smoothing model projects ProShares UltraShort at 9.05 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. This Double Exponential Smoothing output is provided as analytical reference and does not constitute a trading recommendation.
Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of April
Over a 90-day horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing model forecasts ProShares UltraShort at 9.05 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and sum of absolute errors of 11.72 .This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of ProShares UltraShort's price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
ETF Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ProShares UltraShort | ProShares UltraShort Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast range for ProShares UltraShort defines statistically derived downside and upside boundaries based on model performance. The projected band runs from roughly 6.50 on the downside to about 11.59 on the upside. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the Double Exponential Smoothing model's error metrics for ProShares UltraShort ETF. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.039 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1986 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0209 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.7188 |
Other Forecasting Options for ProShares UltraShort
The distribution of ProShares UltraShort's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This reveals hidden support and resistance zones in ProShares UltraShort's chart that simple price charts miss. The slope of ProShares UltraShort's linear regression channel quantifies trend direction and strength over a chosen lookback period. Divergences between OBV and price foreshadow trend changes in ProShares.ProShares UltraShort Related Equities
Sizing up ProShares UltraShort against these stocks within the Trading--Inverse Equity space shows how it compares on key financial measures. Checking cash flow across this peer set helps gauge ProShares UltraShort's relative financial strength. Sector-wide trends across this peer group split company-level factors from broader forces. This peer set gives the context needed for a well-rounded view of ProShares UltraShort.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ProShares UltraShort Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for ProShares UltraShort ETF provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. A rising Accumulation/Distribution line alongside rising price confirms institutional buying interest in ProShares UltraShort. Median and Typical Price smooth out intraday extremes, providing a cleaner reference level for evaluating ProShares UltraShort sessions. Persistent divergence between momentum indicators and price often precedes trend reversals in ProShares UltraShort.
ProShares UltraShort Risk Indicators
Assessing ProShares UltraShort's risk indicators is a structured way to evaluate the risk-return trade-off for proshares etf. The level of risk embedded in ProShares UltraShort's feeds directly into exposure calibration. Comparing ProShares UltraShort's downside variance to total variance reveals whether the risk profile is skewed toward losses. These risk measures complement the price analysis above by framing how dispersed recent returns have been.
| Mean Deviation | 1.89 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.5 | |||
| Variance | 6.27 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.