Solid Biosciences Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SLDB Stock | USD 6.86 0.70 11.36% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Solid Biosciences LLC on the next trading day is expected to be 7.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.73. Solid Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Solid Biosciences stock prices and determine the direction of Solid Biosciences LLC's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Solid Biosciences' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The RSI of Solid Biosciences' stock price is about 62. This usually implies that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Solid, making its price go up or down. Momentum 62
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.47) | EPS Estimate Current Year (2.11) | EPS Estimate Next Year (2.01) | Wall Street Target Price 15.2308 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.44) |
Using Solid Biosciences hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Solid Biosciences LLC from the perspective of Solid Biosciences response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Solid Biosciences using Solid Biosciences' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Solid using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Solid Biosciences' stock price.
Solid Biosciences Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Solid Biosciences' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Solid. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Solid Biosciences stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 5.0066 | Short Percent 0.153 | Short Ratio 10.71 | Shares Short Prior Month 9.9 M | 50 Day MA 5.3194 |
Solid Biosciences LLC Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Solid Biosciences' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Solid. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Solid can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Solid Biosciences LLC. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Solid Biosciences Implied Volatility | 1.33 |
Solid Biosciences' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Solid Biosciences LLC stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Solid Biosciences' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Solid Biosciences stock will not fluctuate a lot when Solid Biosciences' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Solid Biosciences LLC on the next trading day is expected to be 7.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.73. Solid Biosciences after-hype prediction price | USD 6.86 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Solid Biosciences to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Solid contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Solid Biosciences LLC will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0831% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Solid Biosciences trading at USD 6.86, that is roughly USD 0.005702 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Solid Biosciences' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Solid Biosciences LLC options at the current volatility level of 1.33%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Solid Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Solid Biosciences' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Solid Biosciences' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Solid Biosciences stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Solid Biosciences' open interest, investors have to compare it to Solid Biosciences' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Solid Biosciences is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Solid. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Solid Biosciences Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Solid price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Solid using various technical indicators. When you analyze Solid charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Solid Biosciences Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Solid Biosciences' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2015-12-31 | Previous Quarter 138.9 M | Current Value 61.4 M | Quarterly Volatility 63.2 M |
Solid Biosciences Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Solid Biosciences LLC on the next trading day is expected to be 7.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.73.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Solid Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Solid Biosciences' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Solid Biosciences Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Solid Biosciences | Solid Biosciences Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Solid Biosciences Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Solid Biosciences' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Solid Biosciences' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.97 and 12.81, respectively. We have considered Solid Biosciences' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Solid Biosciences stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Solid Biosciences stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.1247 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1891 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0366 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.7261 |
Predictive Modules for Solid Biosciences
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Solid Biosciences LLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Solid Biosciences' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Solid Biosciences After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Solid Biosciences at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Solid Biosciences or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Solid Biosciences, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Solid Biosciences Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Solid Biosciences' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Solid Biosciences' historical news coverage. Solid Biosciences' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.45 and 12.27, respectively. We have considered Solid Biosciences' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Solid Biosciences is unstable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Solid Biosciences LLC is based on 3 months time horizon.
Solid Biosciences Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Solid Biosciences is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Solid Biosciences backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Solid Biosciences, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.40 | 5.42 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 14 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 14 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
6.86 | 6.86 | 0.00 |
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Solid Biosciences Hype Timeline
Solid Biosciences LLC is at this time traded for 6.86. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Solid is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.4%. %. The volatility of related hype on Solid Biosciences is about 7226.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.83. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Solid Biosciences was at this time reported as 2.8. The company recorded a loss per share of 2.76. Solid Biosciences LLC had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:15 split on the 28th of October 2022. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 14 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Solid Biosciences to cross-verify your projections.Solid Biosciences Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Solid Biosciences' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Solid Biosciences' future price movements. Getting to know how Solid Biosciences' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Solid Biosciences may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AUTL | Autolus Therapeutics | 0.08 | 10 per month | 5.23 | (0.01) | 10.45 | (8.67) | 30.76 | |
| QSI | QuantumSi | (0.21) | 21 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 7.09 | (8.33) | 23.25 | |
| RCKT | Rocket Pharmaceuticals | 0.10 | 10 per month | 3.34 | 0.0001 | 8.04 | (5.57) | 16.20 | |
| LBRX | LB Pharmaceuticals Common | 0.59 | 8 per month | 3.32 | 0.13 | 9.38 | (6.59) | 23.59 | |
| AURA | Aura Biosciences | (0.33) | 8 per month | 2.82 | (0.01) | 5.23 | (5.88) | 18.08 | |
| BNTC | Benitec Biopharma Ltd | 0.32 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 5.86 | (6.53) | 28.45 | |
| ANNX | Annexon | 0.31 | 12 per month | 3.30 | 0.22 | 11.30 | (7.54) | 35.10 | |
| NMRA | Neumora Therapeutics | (0.05) | 3 per month | 4.02 | 0.06 | 13.85 | (7.30) | 42.94 | |
| DSGN | Design Therapeutics | (0.79) | 6 per month | 3.63 | 0.13 | 9.28 | (6.97) | 29.54 | |
| RAPT | RAPT Therapeutics | (0.77) | 8 per month | 3.55 | 0.14 | 9.04 | (6.86) | 63.95 |
Other Forecasting Options for Solid Biosciences
For every potential investor in Solid, whether a beginner or expert, Solid Biosciences' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Solid Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Solid. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Solid Biosciences' price trends.Solid Biosciences Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Solid Biosciences stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Solid Biosciences could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Solid Biosciences by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Solid Biosciences Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Solid Biosciences stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Solid Biosciences shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Solid Biosciences stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Solid Biosciences LLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Solid Biosciences Risk Indicators
The analysis of Solid Biosciences' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Solid Biosciences' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting solid stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.84 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.46 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.31 | |||
| Variance | 28.15 | |||
| Downside Variance | 24.15 | |||
| Semi Variance | 19.86 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.45) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Solid Biosciences
The number of cover stories for Solid Biosciences depends on current market conditions and Solid Biosciences' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Solid Biosciences is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Solid Biosciences' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Solid Biosciences Short Properties
Solid Biosciences' future price predictability will typically decrease when Solid Biosciences' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Solid Biosciences LLC often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Solid Biosciences' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Solid Biosciences' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 40.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 148.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Solid Biosciences to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Solid Biosciences. If investors know Solid will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Solid Biosciences listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Solid Biosciences LLC is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Solid that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Solid Biosciences' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Solid Biosciences' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Solid Biosciences' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Solid Biosciences' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Solid Biosciences' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Solid Biosciences is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Solid Biosciences' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.