VanEck Steel Etf Forecast - Simple Regression
| SLX Etf | USD 95.86 0.31 0.32% |
VanEck Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength momentum indicator of VanEck Steel's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the etf is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 72
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using VanEck Steel hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of VanEck Steel ETF from the perspective of VanEck Steel response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of VanEck Steel ETF on the next trading day is expected to be 93.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 86.06. VanEck Steel after-hype prediction price | USD 95.86 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of VanEck Steel to cross-verify your projections. VanEck Steel Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine VanEck price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for VanEck using various technical indicators. When you analyze VanEck charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
VanEck Steel Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of VanEck Steel ETF on the next trading day is expected to be 93.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.39, mean absolute percentage error of 2.96, and the sum of the absolute errors of 86.06.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VanEck Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VanEck Steel's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
VanEck Steel Etf Forecast Pattern
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VanEck Steel Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting VanEck Steel's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. VanEck Steel's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 92.66 and 95.24, respectively. We have considered VanEck Steel's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VanEck Steel etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VanEck Steel etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.032 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.3881 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0168 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 86.0646 |
Predictive Modules for VanEck Steel
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VanEck Steel ETF. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.VanEck Steel After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of VanEck Steel at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in VanEck Steel or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of VanEck Steel, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
VanEck Steel Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting VanEck Steel's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on VanEck Steel's historical news coverage. VanEck Steel's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 94.58 and 97.14, respectively. We have considered VanEck Steel's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
VanEck Steel is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of VanEck Steel ETF is based on 3 months time horizon.
VanEck Steel Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as VanEck Steel is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading VanEck Steel backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with VanEck Steel, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.35 | 1.29 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | Very soon |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
95.86 | 95.86 | 0.00 |
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VanEck Steel Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January VanEck Steel ETF is traded for 95.86. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. VanEck is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.35%. %. The volatility of related hype on VanEck Steel is about 4961.54%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 95.87. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.39. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be very soon. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of VanEck Steel to cross-verify your projections.VanEck Steel Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to VanEck Steel's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict VanEck Steel's future price movements. Getting to know how VanEck Steel's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how VanEck Steel may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LSAT | Two Roads Shared | 0.39 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.26 | (0.94) | 3.68 | |
| SMDX | Intech SP Small Mid | (0.14) | 4 per month | 0.65 | 0.06 | 1.80 | (1.37) | 4.14 | |
| CIL | VictoryShares International Volatility | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.38 | 0.13 | 1.02 | (0.94) | 2.46 | |
| AFMC | First Trust Active | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.70 | 0.06 | 1.75 | (1.55) | 3.90 | |
| GOEX | Global X Gold | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.74 | 0.28 | 5.31 | (3.56) | 12.76 | |
| IFGL | iShares International Developed | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.48 | 0.07 | 0.89 | (0.84) | 2.66 | |
| BAMD | Brookstone Dividend Stock | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.44 | 0.01 | 1.16 | (0.98) | 2.77 | |
| PBJ | Invesco Dynamic Food | 0.01 | 1 per month | 0.45 | 0.10 | 1.48 | (0.91) | 2.91 | |
| EEMX | SPDR MSCI Emerging | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.49 | 0.12 | 1.63 | (1.14) | 3.44 | |
| BKF | iShares MSCI BIC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.61 | (0.06) | 1.17 | (1.19) | 3.92 |
Other Forecasting Options for VanEck Steel
For every potential investor in VanEck, whether a beginner or expert, VanEck Steel's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. VanEck Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in VanEck. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying VanEck Steel's price trends.VanEck Steel Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with VanEck Steel etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of VanEck Steel could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing VanEck Steel by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
VanEck Steel Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how VanEck Steel etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading VanEck Steel shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying VanEck Steel etf market strength indicators, traders can identify VanEck Steel ETF entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
VanEck Steel Risk Indicators
The analysis of VanEck Steel's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in VanEck Steel's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vaneck etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9857 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8132 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Variance | 1.64 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.37 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.6612 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.15) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for VanEck Steel
The number of cover stories for VanEck Steel depends on current market conditions and VanEck Steel's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that VanEck Steel is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about VanEck Steel's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of VanEck Steel to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
The market value of VanEck Steel ETF is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of VanEck that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of VanEck Steel's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is VanEck Steel's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because VanEck Steel's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect VanEck Steel's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between VanEck Steel's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if VanEck Steel is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Meanwhile, VanEck Steel's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.