Fidelity Maryland Mutual Fund Forward View

SMDMX Fund  USD 11.03  0.01  0.09%   
Fidelity Mutual Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Fidelity Maryland's share price is above 70 at this time. This usually implies that the mutual fund is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Fidelity, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 74

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Fidelity Maryland's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Fidelity Maryland Municipal, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Fidelity Maryland hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Fidelity Maryland Municipal from the perspective of Fidelity Maryland response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fidelity Maryland Municipal on the next trading day is expected to be 11.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.83.

Fidelity Maryland after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 11.03  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fidelity Maryland to cross-verify your projections.

Fidelity Maryland Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Fidelity price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Fidelity using various technical indicators. When you analyze Fidelity charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Fidelity Maryland is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Fidelity Maryland Municipal value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Fidelity Maryland Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fidelity Maryland Municipal on the next trading day is expected to be 11.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0003, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.83.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fidelity Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fidelity Maryland's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Fidelity Maryland Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Fidelity Maryland  Fidelity Maryland Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Fidelity Maryland Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Fidelity Maryland's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fidelity Maryland's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.92 and 11.11, respectively. We have considered Fidelity Maryland's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
11.03
11.02
Expected Value
11.11
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fidelity Maryland mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fidelity Maryland mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.7265
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0133
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0012
SAESum of the absolute errors0.8255
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Fidelity Maryland Municipal. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Fidelity Maryland. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Fidelity Maryland

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fidelity Maryland. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
10.9411.0311.12
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
10.0410.1312.13
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
10.9511.0011.05
Details

Fidelity Maryland After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Fidelity Maryland at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Fidelity Maryland or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Fidelity Maryland, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Fidelity Maryland Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Fidelity Maryland's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Fidelity Maryland's historical news coverage. Fidelity Maryland's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.94 and 11.12, respectively. We have considered Fidelity Maryland's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
11.03
11.03
After-hype Price
11.12
Upside
Fidelity Maryland is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Fidelity Maryland is based on 3 months time horizon.

Fidelity Maryland Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Fidelity Maryland is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Fidelity Maryland backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Fidelity Maryland, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.02 
0.09
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
Within a week
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
11.03
11.03
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Fidelity Maryland Hype Timeline

Fidelity Maryland is at this time traded for 11.03. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Fidelity is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Fidelity Maryland is about 230.77%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.03. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next expected press release will be within a week.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fidelity Maryland to cross-verify your projections.

Fidelity Maryland Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Fidelity Maryland's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Fidelity Maryland's future price movements. Getting to know how Fidelity Maryland's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Fidelity Maryland may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
FSAZXFidelity Arizona Municipal 0.01 1 per month 0.00 (0.35) 0.17 (0.17) 0.69 
EDFStone Harbor Emerging 0.04 7 per month 0.70 (0) 1.03 (1.05) 3.11 
EVGEaton Vance Short 0.07 3 per month 0.00 (0.13) 0.65 (0.83) 2.19 
BGXBlackstone Gso Long 0.05 3 per month 0.00 (0.13) 0.69 (0.60) 2.00 
CIKCredit Suisse Asset 0.01 2 per month 0.47 (0.06) 1.09 (0.74) 2.19 
NAZNuveen Arizona Quality 0.02 7 per month 0.41 (0.04) 0.76 (0.76) 2.99 
NNYNuveen New York 0.04 6 per month 0.53 (0.03) 0.96 (1.05) 3.78 
SNTIXSit Tax Free Income 0.00 0 per month 0.08 (0.34) 0.23 (0.11) 0.80 
MPABlackrock Muniyield Pennsylvania 0.15 2 per month 0.40 (0.06) 0.72 (0.71) 1.62 
FMIEXWasatch Large Cap 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.27  0.98 (0.57) 4.72 

Other Forecasting Options for Fidelity Maryland

For every potential investor in Fidelity, whether a beginner or expert, Fidelity Maryland's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fidelity Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fidelity. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fidelity Maryland's price trends.

Fidelity Maryland Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fidelity Maryland mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fidelity Maryland could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fidelity Maryland by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Fidelity Maryland Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fidelity Maryland mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fidelity Maryland shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fidelity Maryland mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Fidelity Maryland Municipal entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Fidelity Maryland Risk Indicators

The analysis of Fidelity Maryland's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fidelity Maryland's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fidelity mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Fidelity Maryland

The number of cover stories for Fidelity Maryland depends on current market conditions and Fidelity Maryland's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Fidelity Maryland is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Fidelity Maryland's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Other Information on Investing in Fidelity Mutual Fund

Fidelity Maryland financial ratios help investors to determine whether Fidelity Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Fidelity with respect to the benefits of owning Fidelity Maryland security.
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