Smurfit Kappa Pink Sheet Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average
| SMFTF Stock | USD 55.02 0.26 0.47% |
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Smurfit Kappa Group on the next trading day is expected to be 53.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.97 and the sum of the absolute errors of 121.72. Smurfit Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Smurfit Kappa's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
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Smurfit Kappa 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 3rd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Smurfit Kappa Group on the next trading day is expected to be 53.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.97, mean absolute percentage error of 12.41, and the sum of the absolute errors of 121.72.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Smurfit Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Smurfit Kappa's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Smurfit Kappa Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
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Smurfit Kappa Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Smurfit Kappa's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Smurfit Kappa's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 51.04 and 55.89, respectively. We have considered Smurfit Kappa's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Smurfit Kappa pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Smurfit Kappa pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 83.8712 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -1.6615 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.9689 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0581 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 121.723 |
Predictive Modules for Smurfit Kappa
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Smurfit Kappa Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Smurfit Kappa's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Smurfit Kappa
For every potential investor in Smurfit, whether a beginner or expert, Smurfit Kappa's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Smurfit Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Smurfit. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Smurfit Kappa's price trends.Smurfit Kappa Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Smurfit Kappa pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Smurfit Kappa could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Smurfit Kappa by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Smurfit Kappa Group Technical and Predictive Analytics
The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Smurfit Kappa's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Smurfit Kappa's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Smurfit Kappa Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Smurfit Kappa pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Smurfit Kappa shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Smurfit Kappa pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Smurfit Kappa Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Smurfit Kappa Risk Indicators
The analysis of Smurfit Kappa's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Smurfit Kappa's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting smurfit pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.68 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.48 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.42 | |||
| Variance | 5.87 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.83 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.18 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.10) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Other Information on Investing in Smurfit Pink Sheet
Smurfit Kappa financial ratios help investors to determine whether Smurfit Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Smurfit with respect to the benefits of owning Smurfit Kappa security.