Smiths Group Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

SMGKF Stock  USD 34.35  0.00  0.00%   
Smiths Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Smiths Group's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 26th of January 2026 The relative strength index (RSI) of Smiths Group's share price is above 80 . This usually implies that the pink sheet is significantly overbought by investors. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 91

 Buy Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Smiths Group's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Smiths Group and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Smiths Group's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Smiths Group plc, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Smiths Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Smiths Group plc from the perspective of Smiths Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Smiths Group plc on the next trading day is expected to be 34.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.87.

Smiths Group after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 34.35  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Smiths Group to cross-verify your projections.

Smiths Group Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Smiths price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Smiths using various technical indicators. When you analyze Smiths charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Smiths Group is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Smiths Group plc value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Smiths Group Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Smiths Group plc on the next trading day is expected to be 34.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.87.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Smiths Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Smiths Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Smiths Group Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Smiths Group Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Smiths Group's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Smiths Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 33.80 and 35.10, respectively. We have considered Smiths Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
34.35
34.45
Expected Value
35.10
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Smiths Group pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Smiths Group pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.8181
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1454
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0044
SAESum of the absolute errors8.868
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Smiths Group plc. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Smiths Group. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Smiths Group

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Smiths Group plc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
33.7034.3535.00
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
33.1733.8234.47
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
31.4633.1734.88
Details

Smiths Group After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Smiths Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Smiths Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Smiths Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Smiths Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Smiths Group's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Smiths Group's historical news coverage. Smiths Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 33.70 and 35.00, respectively. We have considered Smiths Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
34.35
34.35
After-hype Price
35.00
Upside
Smiths Group is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Smiths Group plc is based on 3 months time horizon.

Smiths Group Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Smiths Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Smiths Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Smiths Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.09 
0.65
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Within a week
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
34.35
34.35
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Smiths Group Hype Timeline

Smiths Group plc is at this time traded for 34.35. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Smiths is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.09%. %. The volatility of related hype on Smiths Group is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 34.35. About 81.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Smiths Group was at this time reported as 7.46. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.33. Smiths Group plc last dividend was issued on the 20th of October 2022. The entity had 2:3 split on the 18th of June 2007. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be within a week.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Smiths Group to cross-verify your projections.

Smiths Group Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Smiths Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Smiths Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Smiths Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Smiths Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
WEGRYWeir Group PLC 0.00 0 per month 1.74  0.08  3.53 (2.27) 8.99 
MLSPFMelrose Industries PLC 0.00 0 per month 3.73 (0.01) 6.98 (6.66) 16.86 
DAIUFDaifuku Co 0.00 0 per month 1.80  0.02  4.88 (2.63) 27.62 
JPSWYJapan Steel Works 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.06) 5.79 (7.17) 25.05 
WEIGFThe Weir Group 0.00 0 per month 1.08  0.06  3.00 (2.42) 8.29 
TBABFTrelleborg AB 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
VTTGFVAT Group AG 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.14  0.00  0.00  16.77 
DFKCYDaifuku Co 0.00 0 per month 1.57  0.03  2.55 (2.61) 11.30 
DNGFFDongfang Electric 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.17  6.67  0.00  21.94 
RTLLFRATIONAL Aktiengesellschaft 0.00 0 per month 1.85 (0.01) 5.19 (4.22) 15.26 

Other Forecasting Options for Smiths Group

For every potential investor in Smiths, whether a beginner or expert, Smiths Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Smiths Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Smiths. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Smiths Group's price trends.

Smiths Group Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Smiths Group pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Smiths Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Smiths Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Smiths Group Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Smiths Group pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Smiths Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Smiths Group pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Smiths Group plc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Smiths Group Risk Indicators

The analysis of Smiths Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Smiths Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting smiths pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Smiths Group

The number of cover stories for Smiths Group depends on current market conditions and Smiths Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Smiths Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Smiths Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Information on Investing in Smiths Pink Sheet

Smiths Group financial ratios help investors to determine whether Smiths Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Smiths with respect to the benefits of owning Smiths Group security.