Smi Conservative Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

SMILX Fund  USD 11.45  0.09  0.79%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Smi Servative Allocation on the next trading day is expected to be 11.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.65. Smi Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Smi Conservative's share price is above 70 at this time. This usually implies that the mutual fund is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Smi, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 74

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Smi Conservative's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Smi Servative Allocation, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Smi Conservative hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Smi Servative Allocation from the perspective of Smi Conservative response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Smi Servative Allocation on the next trading day is expected to be 11.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.65.

Smi Conservative after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 11.45  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Smi Conservative to cross-verify your projections.

Smi Conservative Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Smi price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Smi using various technical indicators. When you analyze Smi charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Smi Conservative price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Smi Conservative Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 23rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Smi Servative Allocation on the next trading day is expected to be 11.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.65.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Smi Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Smi Conservative's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Smi Conservative Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Smi ConservativeSmi Conservative Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Smi Conservative Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Smi Conservative's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Smi Conservative's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.79 and 12.26, respectively. We have considered Smi Conservative's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
11.45
11.03
Expected Value
12.26
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Smi Conservative mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Smi Conservative mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.9067
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3057
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0299
SAESum of the absolute errors18.65
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Smi Servative Allocation historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Smi Conservative

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Smi Servative Allocation. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
10.2211.4512.68
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
10.9712.2013.43
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
9.6910.7711.85
Details

Smi Conservative After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Smi Conservative at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Smi Conservative or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Smi Conservative, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Smi Conservative Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Smi Conservative's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Smi Conservative's historical news coverage. Smi Conservative's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.22 and 12.68, respectively. We have considered Smi Conservative's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
11.45
11.45
After-hype Price
12.68
Upside
Smi Conservative is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Smi Servative Allocation is based on 3 months time horizon.

Smi Conservative Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Smi Conservative is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Smi Conservative backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Smi Conservative, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.23 
1.23
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Within a week
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
11.45
11.45
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Smi Conservative Hype Timeline

Smi Servative Allocation is at this time traded for 11.45. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Smi is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.23%. %. The volatility of related hype on Smi Conservative is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.45. The company last dividend was issued on the 30th of December 1970. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next expected press release will be within a week.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Smi Conservative to cross-verify your projections.

Smi Conservative Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Smi Conservative's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Smi Conservative's future price movements. Getting to know how Smi Conservative's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Smi Conservative may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Smi Conservative

For every potential investor in Smi, whether a beginner or expert, Smi Conservative's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Smi Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Smi. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Smi Conservative's price trends.

Smi Conservative Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Smi Conservative mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Smi Conservative could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Smi Conservative by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Smi Conservative Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Smi Conservative mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Smi Conservative shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Smi Conservative mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Smi Servative Allocation entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Smi Conservative Risk Indicators

The analysis of Smi Conservative's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Smi Conservative's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting smi mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Smi Conservative

The number of cover stories for Smi Conservative depends on current market conditions and Smi Conservative's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Smi Conservative is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Smi Conservative's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Smi Mutual Fund

Smi Conservative financial ratios help investors to determine whether Smi Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Smi with respect to the benefits of owning Smi Conservative security.
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