Samsonite International Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SMSEY Stock | USD 13.57 0.22 1.60% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Samsonite International SA on the next trading day is expected to be 13.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.81. Samsonite Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Samsonite International's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Samsonite International hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Samsonite International SA from the perspective of Samsonite International response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Samsonite International SA on the next trading day is expected to be 13.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.81. Samsonite International after-hype prediction price | USD 13.69 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Samsonite |
Samsonite International Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Samsonite price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Samsonite using various technical indicators. When you analyze Samsonite charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Samsonite International Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Samsonite International SA on the next trading day is expected to be 13.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.1, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.81.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Samsonite Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Samsonite International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Samsonite International Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Samsonite International | Samsonite International Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Samsonite International Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Samsonite International's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Samsonite International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.80 and 16.06, respectively. We have considered Samsonite International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Samsonite International pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Samsonite International pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.7631 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2428 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0204 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.8133 |
Predictive Modules for Samsonite International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Samsonite International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Samsonite International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Samsonite International After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Samsonite International at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Samsonite International or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Samsonite International, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Samsonite International Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Samsonite International's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Samsonite International's historical news coverage. Samsonite International's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.06 and 16.32, respectively. We have considered Samsonite International's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Samsonite International is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Samsonite International is based on 3 months time horizon.
Samsonite International Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Samsonite International is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Samsonite International backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Samsonite International, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.43 | 2.63 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
13.57 | 13.69 | 0.07 |
|
Samsonite International Hype Timeline
Samsonite International is at this time traded for 13.57. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.09. Samsonite is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 13.69. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -0.07%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.43%. The volatility of related hype on Samsonite International is about 1228.97%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.66. The book value of the company was at this time reported as 2.92. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.17. Samsonite International last dividend was issued on the 10th of June 2019. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Samsonite International to cross-verify your projections.Samsonite International Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Samsonite International's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Samsonite International's future price movements. Getting to know how Samsonite International's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Samsonite International may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| YUEIY | Yue Yuen Industrial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.79 | 0.11 | 5.47 | (4.16) | 18.15 | |
| HUGPF | Hugo Boss AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 0.00 | (0.73) | 10.45 | |
| YUEIF | Yue Yuen Industrial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 44.29 | |
| PUMSY | PUMA SE | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.83 | 0.0005 | 4.76 | (4.32) | 22.52 | |
| BOSSY | Hugo Boss AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.17 | (4.57) | 15.88 | |
| PMMAF | Puma SE | 2.20 | 2 per month | 3.16 | (0.01) | 5.94 | (5.82) | 33.19 | |
| SKXJF | Sankyo Co | (0.03) | 10 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| NGCRF | Nagacorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 14.80 | |
| DNLMY | Dunelm Group PLC | (0.03) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 32.48 | |
| MAWHY | Man Wah Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.68 | (0.02) | 4.14 | (9.44) | 39.25 |
Other Forecasting Options for Samsonite International
For every potential investor in Samsonite, whether a beginner or expert, Samsonite International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Samsonite Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Samsonite. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Samsonite International's price trends.Samsonite International Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Samsonite International pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Samsonite International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Samsonite International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Samsonite International Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Samsonite International pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Samsonite International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Samsonite International pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Samsonite International SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 9.61 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.00) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 13.46 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 13.5 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 4.0E-4 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.22) |
Samsonite International Risk Indicators
The analysis of Samsonite International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Samsonite International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting samsonite pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.58 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.31 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.55 | |||
| Variance | 6.48 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.66 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.7 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.89) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Samsonite International
The number of cover stories for Samsonite International depends on current market conditions and Samsonite International's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Samsonite International is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Samsonite International's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
Story Categories
Currently Trending Categories
Additional Tools for Samsonite Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Samsonite International's price analysis, check to measure Samsonite International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Samsonite International is operating at the current time. Most of Samsonite International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Samsonite International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Samsonite International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Samsonite International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.