WH Smith Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| SMWH Stock | 693.50 15.50 2.29% |
SMWH Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At the present time the value of rsi of WH Smith's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.065 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.57 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.6289 | Wall Street Target Price 708.364 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.027 |
Using WH Smith hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of WH Smith PLC from the perspective of WH Smith response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of WH Smith PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 694.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 612.50. WH Smith after-hype prediction price | GBX 677.47 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
SMWH |
WH Smith Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine SMWH price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for SMWH using various technical indicators. When you analyze SMWH charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
WH Smith Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of WH Smith PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 694.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.21, mean absolute percentage error of 225.57, and the sum of the absolute errors of 612.50.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SMWH Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that WH Smith's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
WH Smith Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest WH Smith | WH Smith Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
WH Smith Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting WH Smith's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. WH Smith's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 692.00 and 696.68, respectively. We have considered WH Smith's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of WH Smith stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent WH Smith stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 1.5641 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 10.2083 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0155 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 612.4979 |
Predictive Modules for WH Smith
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as WH Smith PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.WH Smith After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of WH Smith at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in WH Smith or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of WH Smith, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
WH Smith Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting WH Smith's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on WH Smith's historical news coverage. WH Smith's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 675.13 and 679.81, respectively. We have considered WH Smith's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
WH Smith is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of WH Smith PLC is based on 3 months time horizon.
WH Smith Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as WH Smith is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading WH Smith backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with WH Smith, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.16 | 2.34 | 0.95 | 120.14 | 8 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
693.50 | 677.47 | 0.08 |
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WH Smith Hype Timeline
WH Smith PLC is at this time traded for 693.50on London Exchange of UK. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.95, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 120.14. SMWH is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 677.47. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 39.39%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -0.08%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.16%. The volatility of related hype on WH Smith is about 0.31%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 813.64. About 88.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.24. WH Smith PLC last dividend was issued on the 22nd of January 2026. The entity had 67:74 split on the 22nd of February 2008. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of WH Smith to cross-verify your projections.WH Smith Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to WH Smith's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict WH Smith's future price movements. Getting to know how WH Smith's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how WH Smith may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BC94 | Samsung Electronics Co | 14.00 | 5 per month | 1.81 | 0.31 | 5.77 | (3.80) | 13.29 | |
| SMSN | Samsung Electronics Co | 12.00 | 4 per month | 1.80 | 0.31 | 5.89 | (3.21) | 11.22 | |
| SMSD | Samsung Electronics Co | 10.00 | 4 per month | 1.77 | 0.28 | 5.44 | (3.79) | 12.16 | |
| TYT | Toyota Motor Corp | 0.25 | 3 per month | 1.27 | 0.10 | 3.26 | (2.29) | 10.55 | |
| 0K1Y | Mitsubishi UFJ Financial | 1.14 | 4 per month | 1.40 | 0.15 | 4.25 | (2.92) | 7.96 | |
| 0R15 | SoftBank Group Corp | 6,720 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 10.41 | (9.95) | 109.63 | |
| OTPD | OTP Bank Plc | 0.00 | 2 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| SBID | State Bank of | 0.60 | 5 per month | 1.11 | 0.17 | 2.85 | (1.66) | 8.81 | |
| GTCO | Guaranty Trust Holding | 0.0008 | 5 per month | 3.63 | 0.12 | 8.83 | (5.20) | 23.04 |
Other Forecasting Options for WH Smith
For every potential investor in SMWH, whether a beginner or expert, WH Smith's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. SMWH Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in SMWH. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying WH Smith's price trends.WH Smith Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with WH Smith stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of WH Smith could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing WH Smith by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
WH Smith Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how WH Smith stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading WH Smith shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying WH Smith stock market strength indicators, traders can identify WH Smith PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 6674.96 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.9118 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 686.5 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 688.83 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 1.0E-4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 14.75 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 15.5 |
WH Smith Risk Indicators
The analysis of WH Smith's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in WH Smith's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting smwh stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.67 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.87 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.46 | |||
| Variance | 6.03 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.39 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.5 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.94) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for WH Smith
The number of cover stories for WH Smith depends on current market conditions and WH Smith's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that WH Smith is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about WH Smith's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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WH Smith Short Properties
WH Smith's future price predictability will typically decrease when WH Smith's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of WH Smith PLC often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential WH Smith's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. WH Smith's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 127 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 71 M |
Additional Tools for SMWH Stock Analysis
When running WH Smith's price analysis, check to measure WH Smith's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy WH Smith is operating at the current time. Most of WH Smith's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of WH Smith's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move WH Smith's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of WH Smith to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.