PT Sunter Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

SNLK Stock  IDR 680.00  10.00  1.45%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of PT Sunter Lakeside on the next trading day is expected to be 624.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 23.62 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,441. SNLK Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for PT Sunter is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of PT Sunter Lakeside value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

PT Sunter Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of PT Sunter Lakeside on the next trading day is expected to be 624.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 23.62, mean absolute percentage error of 908.50, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,441.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SNLK Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PT Sunter's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

PT Sunter Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest PT SunterPT Sunter Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

PT Sunter Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting PT Sunter's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. PT Sunter's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 620.48 and 628.91, respectively. We have considered PT Sunter's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
680.00
620.48
Downside
624.69
Expected Value
628.91
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PT Sunter stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PT Sunter stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria124.9223
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation23.6239
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0335
SAESum of the absolute errors1441.0598
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of PT Sunter Lakeside. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict PT Sunter. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for PT Sunter

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PT Sunter Lakeside. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
675.78680.00684.22
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
678.28682.50686.72
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
654.66779.38904.09
Details

Other Forecasting Options for PT Sunter

For every potential investor in SNLK, whether a beginner or expert, PT Sunter's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. SNLK Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in SNLK. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying PT Sunter's price trends.

PT Sunter Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with PT Sunter stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of PT Sunter could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing PT Sunter by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

PT Sunter Lakeside Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of PT Sunter's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of PT Sunter's current price.

PT Sunter Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how PT Sunter stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading PT Sunter shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying PT Sunter stock market strength indicators, traders can identify PT Sunter Lakeside entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

PT Sunter Risk Indicators

The analysis of PT Sunter's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in PT Sunter's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting snlk stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in SNLK Stock

PT Sunter financial ratios help investors to determine whether SNLK Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in SNLK with respect to the benefits of owning PT Sunter security.