Steward International Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

SNTKX Fund  USD 28.02  0.23  0.83%   
Steward Mutual Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Steward International's share price is above 70 at this time. This usually implies that the mutual fund is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Steward, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 71

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Steward International's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Steward International Enhanced, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Steward International hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Steward International Enhanced from the perspective of Steward International response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Steward International Enhanced on the next trading day is expected to be 27.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.55 and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.30.

Steward International after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 28.04  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Steward International to cross-verify your projections.

Steward International Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Steward price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Steward using various technical indicators. When you analyze Steward charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Steward International price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Steward International Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 27th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Steward International Enhanced on the next trading day is expected to be 27.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.55, mean absolute percentage error of 0.40, and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.30.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Steward Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Steward International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Steward International Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Steward International  Steward International Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Steward International Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Steward International's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Steward International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 26.55 and 28.86, respectively. We have considered Steward International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
28.02
27.71
Expected Value
28.86
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Steward International mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Steward International mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.1962
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.5459
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.022
SAESum of the absolute errors33.3021
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Steward International Enhanced historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Steward International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Steward International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
26.8828.0429.20
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
25.2229.8531.01
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
26.0227.1028.17
Details

Steward International After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Steward International at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Steward International or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Steward International, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Steward International Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Steward International's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Steward International's historical news coverage. Steward International's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 26.88 and 29.20, respectively. We have considered Steward International's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
28.02
28.04
After-hype Price
29.20
Upside
Steward International is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Steward International is based on 3 months time horizon.

Steward International Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Steward International is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Steward International backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Steward International, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.23 
1.16
  0.02 
  0.01 
6 Events / Month
3 Events / Month
In about 6 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
28.02
28.04
0.07 
1,657  
Notes

Steward International Hype Timeline

Steward International is at this time traded for 28.02. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Steward is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 28.04 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.07%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.23%. The volatility of related hype on Steward International is about 3314.29%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 28.03. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Steward International to cross-verify your projections.

Steward International Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Steward International's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Steward International's future price movements. Getting to know how Steward International's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Steward International may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
NSCRXNuveen Nwq Small Cap 0.07 9 per month 0.74  0.14  2.63 (1.66) 10.03 
NSCFXNuveen Nwq Small Cap 0.07 3 per month 0.74  0.14  2.64 (1.66) 9.82 
AINTXAriel International Fund 0.00 0 per month 0.32  0.13  1.34 (1.15) 15.57 
HLMEXHarding Loevner Institutional(0.01)1 per month 0.00 (0.11) 1.18 (1.13) 50.48 
HFCGXHennessy Nerstone Growth 0.02 12 per month 0.44  0.06  1.64 (0.90) 3.20 
WTSGXWestcore Small Cap Growth 0.07 1 per month 1.16  0.06  1.88 (1.95) 5.11 
IRFAXCohen Steers International 0.07 1 per month 0.60 (0.05) 1.10 (1.11) 2.99 
MCRMFS Charter Income(0.01)8 per month 0.35 (0.13) 0.65 (0.48) 1.93 
HYIWestern Asset High 0.00 0 per month 0.35 (0.18) 0.63 (0.64) 1.71 
FUNDSprott Focus Trust 0.07 8 per month 0.73  0.15  1.74 (1.49) 4.14 

Other Forecasting Options for Steward International

For every potential investor in Steward, whether a beginner or expert, Steward International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Steward Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Steward. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Steward International's price trends.

Steward International Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Steward International mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Steward International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Steward International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Steward International Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Steward International mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Steward International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Steward International mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Steward International Enhanced entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Steward International Risk Indicators

The analysis of Steward International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Steward International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting steward mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Steward International

The number of cover stories for Steward International depends on current market conditions and Steward International's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Steward International is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Steward International's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Other Information on Investing in Steward Mutual Fund

Steward International financial ratios help investors to determine whether Steward Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Steward with respect to the benefits of owning Steward International security.
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