Solar Enertech Pink Sheet Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing

SOEN Stock  USD 0.0001  0.00  0.00%   
Solar Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Solar Enertech's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Solar Enertech's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Solar Enertech Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Solar Enertech hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Solar Enertech Corp from the perspective of Solar Enertech response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Solar Enertech Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 0.0001 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.00000333 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.0002.

Solar Enertech after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 1.08E-4  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Solar Enertech to cross-verify your projections.

Solar Enertech Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Solar price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Solar using various technical indicators. When you analyze Solar charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Solar Enertech simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Solar Enertech Corp are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Solar Enertech Corp prices get older.

Solar Enertech Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 8th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Solar Enertech Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 0.0001 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.00000333, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.0002.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Solar Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Solar Enertech's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Solar Enertech Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest Solar Enertech  Solar Enertech Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Solar Enertech Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Solar Enertech's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Solar Enertech's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.000001 and 14.29, respectively. We have considered Solar Enertech's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.0001
0.000001
Downside
0.0001
Expected Value
14.29
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Solar Enertech pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Solar Enertech pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria94.4507
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.025
SAESum of the absolute errors2.0E-4
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Solar Enertech Corp forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Solar Enertech observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Solar Enertech

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Solar Enertech Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Solar Enertech's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.000.000114.29
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.000.00009614.29
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
0.00010.00010.0001
Details

Solar Enertech After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Solar Enertech at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Solar Enertech or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Solar Enertech, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Solar Enertech Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Solar Enertech's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Solar Enertech's historical news coverage. Solar Enertech's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 14.29, respectively. We have considered Solar Enertech's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
0.0001
0.0001
After-hype Price
14.29
Upside
Solar Enertech is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Solar Enertech Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.

Solar Enertech Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Solar Enertech is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Solar Enertech backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Solar Enertech, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.81 
14.29
 0.00  
  0.01 
0 Events / Month
3 Events / Month
Within a week
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
0.0001
0.0001
8.22 
0.00  
Notes

Solar Enertech Hype Timeline

Solar Enertech Corp is at this time traded for 0.0001. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. Solar is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 1.08E-4 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price boost on the next news is estimated to be 8.22%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.81%. The volatility of related hype on Solar Enertech is about 89312.5%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of -0.01. The company has return on total asset (ROA) of (0.2599) % which means that it has lost $0.2599 on every $100 spent on assets. This is way below average. Similarly, it shows a return on stockholder's equity (ROE) of (0.8743) %, meaning that it created substantial loss on money invested by shareholders. Solar Enertech's management efficiency ratios could be used to measure how well Solar Enertech manages its routine affairs as well as how well it operates its assets and liabilities. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be within a week.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Solar Enertech to cross-verify your projections.

Solar Enertech Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Solar Enertech's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Solar Enertech's future price movements. Getting to know how Solar Enertech's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Solar Enertech may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
MSTSXMorningstar Unconstrained Allocation 0.00 0 per month 0.40  0.06  0.93 (1.01) 12.28 
RRTLXT Rowe Price 0.00 0 per month 0.08 (0.03) 0.58 (0.49) 3.30 
ORMPOramed Pharmaceuticals 0.00 9 per month 2.06  0.18  6.98 (3.76) 17.67 
GSFPGoldman Sachs 0.13 4 per month 0.33  0.15  1.27 (1.10) 3.10 
VTARXVirtus Dfa 2040 0.00 0 per month 0.03  0.06  0.93 (0.83) 17.94 
MCTACharming Medical Limited 0.00 10 per month 0.00  0.09  2.63  0.00  24.43 
GBDCGolub Capital BDC(0.13)11 per month 0.00 (0.19) 1.37 (1.99) 7.65 
GSBDGoldman Sachs BDC(0.07)7 per month 0.00 (0.13) 1.88 (1.93) 4.38 
BCSFBain Capital Specialty(0.09)9 per month 0.00 (0.09) 1.99 (2.13) 6.32 
BGAFXBaron Global Advantage 0.00 0 per month 1.14 (0.04) 1.76 (2.41) 12.37 

Other Forecasting Options for Solar Enertech

For every potential investor in Solar, whether a beginner or expert, Solar Enertech's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Solar Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Solar. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Solar Enertech's price trends.

Solar Enertech Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Solar Enertech pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Solar Enertech could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Solar Enertech by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Solar Enertech Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Solar Enertech pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Solar Enertech shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Solar Enertech pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Solar Enertech Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Solar Enertech Risk Indicators

The analysis of Solar Enertech's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Solar Enertech's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting solar pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Solar Enertech

The number of cover stories for Solar Enertech depends on current market conditions and Solar Enertech's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Solar Enertech is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Solar Enertech's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Solar Pink Sheet

Solar Enertech financial ratios help investors to determine whether Solar Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Solar with respect to the benefits of owning Solar Enertech security.