Spire Global Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

SPIR Stock  USD 12.31  0.74  6.40%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Spire Global on the next trading day is expected to be 12.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.71. Spire Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Spire Global's stock price is slightly above 61. This usually implies that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Spire, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 61

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Spire Global's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Spire Global and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Spire Global's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Spire Global, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Spire Global hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Spire Global from the perspective of Spire Global response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Spire Global on the next trading day is expected to be 12.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.71.

Spire Global after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 12.31  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Spire Global to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Spire Stock, please use our How to Invest in Spire Global guide.

Spire Global Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Spire price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Spire using various technical indicators. When you analyze Spire charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A two period moving average forecast for Spire Global is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Spire Global Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Spire Global on the next trading day is expected to be 12.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50, mean absolute percentage error of 0.45, and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.71.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Spire Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Spire Global's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Spire Global Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Spire GlobalSpire Global Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Spire Global Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Spire Global's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Spire Global's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.88 and 18.74, respectively. We have considered Spire Global's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
12.31
12.31
Expected Value
18.74
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Spire Global stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Spire Global stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.4642
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0169
MADMean absolute deviation0.4952
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0557
SAESum of the absolute errors29.715
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Spire Global price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Spire Global. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Spire Global

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Spire Global. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
5.9312.3118.69
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
2.859.2315.61
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
6.069.3912.73
Details

Spire Global After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Spire Global at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Spire Global or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Spire Global, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Spire Global Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Spire Global's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Spire Global's historical news coverage. Spire Global's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.93 and 18.69, respectively. We have considered Spire Global's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
12.31
12.31
After-hype Price
18.69
Upside
Spire Global is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Spire Global is based on 3 months time horizon.

Spire Global Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Spire Global is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Spire Global backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Spire Global, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.30 
6.43
 0.00  
  0.01 
0 Events / Month
5 Events / Month
Within a week
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
12.31
12.31
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Spire Global Hype Timeline

Spire Global is at this time traded for 12.31. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. Spire is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.3%. %. The volatility of related hype on Spire Global is about 20093.75%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.32. About 40.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Spire Global was at this time reported as 4.07. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Spire Global had 1:8 split on the 31st of August 2023. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be within a week.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Spire Global to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Spire Stock, please use our How to Invest in Spire Global guide.

Spire Global Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Spire Global's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Spire Global's future price movements. Getting to know how Spire Global's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Spire Global may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
ANPARich Sparkle Holdings 0.14 14 per month 10.63  0.12  21.25 (23.66) 295.76 
ACTGAcacia Research(0.01)11 per month 2.44  0.05  3.54 (3.39) 15.00 
CVEOCiveo Corp(0.08)2 per month 1.68  0.08  2.75 (1.82) 14.66 
CMDBCostamare Bulkers Holdings 0.07 9 per month 1.71  0.06  2.58 (3.29) 15.86 
FLYXflyExclusive 0.26 9 per month 7.61  0.04  11.96 (11.89) 161.87 
JELDJeld Wen Holding(0.01)24 per month 0.00 (0.09) 9.36 (10.14) 31.75 
SBCSBC Communications 0.14 10 per month 3.06  0.01  6.43 (6.65) 16.73 
ACCOAcco Brands 0.05 9 per month 2.05  0.02  3.25 (3.17) 9.71 
QUADQuad Graphics 0.03 7 per month 3.20  0.04  3.33 (4.72) 14.67 
WNCWabash National(0.27)3 per month 2.17  0.07  5.40 (3.78) 16.28 

Other Forecasting Options for Spire Global

For every potential investor in Spire, whether a beginner or expert, Spire Global's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Spire Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Spire. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Spire Global's price trends.

Spire Global Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Spire Global stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Spire Global could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Spire Global by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Spire Global Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Spire Global stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Spire Global shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Spire Global stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Spire Global entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Spire Global Risk Indicators

The analysis of Spire Global's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Spire Global's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting spire stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Spire Global

The number of cover stories for Spire Global depends on current market conditions and Spire Global's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Spire Global is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Spire Global's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Spire Global Short Properties

Spire Global's future price predictability will typically decrease when Spire Global's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Spire Global often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Spire Global's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Spire Global's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding24.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments19.2 M

Additional Tools for Spire Stock Analysis

When running Spire Global's price analysis, check to measure Spire Global's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Spire Global is operating at the current time. Most of Spire Global's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Spire Global's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Spire Global's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Spire Global to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.