Wilton Makmur Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

SQMI Stock  IDR 40.00  3.00  8.11%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Wilton Makmur Indonesia on the next trading day is expected to be 40.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 67.00. Wilton Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Wilton Makmur simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Wilton Makmur Indonesia are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Wilton Makmur Indonesia prices get older.

Wilton Makmur Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Wilton Makmur Indonesia on the next trading day is expected to be 40.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.12, mean absolute percentage error of 2.78, and the sum of the absolute errors of 67.00.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Wilton Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Wilton Makmur's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Wilton Makmur Stock Forecast Pattern

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Wilton Makmur Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Wilton Makmur's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Wilton Makmur's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 35.73 and 44.27, respectively. We have considered Wilton Makmur's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
40.00
40.00
Expected Value
44.27
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Wilton Makmur stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Wilton Makmur stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.2963
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0167
MADMean absolute deviation1.1167
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0304
SAESum of the absolute errors67.0
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Wilton Makmur Indonesia forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Wilton Makmur observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Wilton Makmur

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Wilton Makmur Indonesia. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
35.7340.0044.27
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
28.9133.1844.00
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
40.0040.0040.00
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Wilton Makmur

For every potential investor in Wilton, whether a beginner or expert, Wilton Makmur's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Wilton Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Wilton. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Wilton Makmur's price trends.

Wilton Makmur Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Wilton Makmur stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Wilton Makmur could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Wilton Makmur by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Wilton Makmur Indonesia Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Wilton Makmur's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Wilton Makmur's current price.

Wilton Makmur Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Wilton Makmur stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Wilton Makmur shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Wilton Makmur stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Wilton Makmur Indonesia entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Wilton Makmur Risk Indicators

The analysis of Wilton Makmur's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Wilton Makmur's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting wilton stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Wilton Stock

Wilton Makmur financial ratios help investors to determine whether Wilton Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Wilton with respect to the benefits of owning Wilton Makmur security.