Stadler Rail Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| SRAIL Stock | CHF 19.61 0.18 0.93% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Stadler Rail AG on the next trading day is expected to be 19.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.14. Stadler Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the value of RSI of Stadler Rail's share price is approaching 47. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Stadler Rail, making its price go up or down. Momentum 47
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Stadler Rail hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Stadler Rail AG from the perspective of Stadler Rail response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Stadler Rail AG on the next trading day is expected to be 19.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.14. Stadler Rail after-hype prediction price | CHF 19.61 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Stadler |
Stadler Rail Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Stadler price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Stadler using various technical indicators. When you analyze Stadler charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Stadler Rail Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Stadler Rail AG on the next trading day is expected to be 19.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44, mean absolute percentage error of 0.35, and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.14.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Stadler Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Stadler Rail's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stadler Rail Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Stadler Rail | Stadler Rail Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Stadler Rail Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Stadler Rail's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Stadler Rail's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.05 and 21.92, respectively. We have considered Stadler Rail's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Stadler Rail stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Stadler Rail stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.0477 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4449 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0222 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 27.1406 |
Predictive Modules for Stadler Rail
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Stadler Rail AG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Stadler Rail After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Stadler Rail at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Stadler Rail or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Stadler Rail, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Stadler Rail Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Stadler Rail's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Stadler Rail's historical news coverage. Stadler Rail's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 17.67 and 21.55, respectively. We have considered Stadler Rail's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Stadler Rail is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Stadler Rail AG is based on 3 months time horizon.
Stadler Rail Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Stadler Rail is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Stadler Rail backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Stadler Rail, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 1.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
19.61 | 19.61 | 0.00 |
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Stadler Rail Hype Timeline
Stadler Rail AG is at this time traded for 19.61on SIX Swiss Exchange of Switzerland. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Stadler is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on Stadler Rail is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 19.61. About 46.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The book value of Stadler Rail was at this time reported as 5.21. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.86. Stadler Rail AG last dividend was issued on the 9th of May 2022. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Stadler Rail to cross-verify your projections.Stadler Rail Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Stadler Rail's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Stadler Rail's future price movements. Getting to know how Stadler Rail's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Stadler Rail may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AERO | Montana Aerospace AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.14 | 0.03 | 7.11 | (6.10) | 23.82 | |
| BCHN | Burckhardt Compression | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.51 | (2.14) | 6.35 | |
| INRN | Interroll Holding AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.62 | (3.46) | 11.33 | |
| JFN | Jungfraubahn Holding AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.35 | 0.32 | 2.27 | (1.29) | 4.73 | |
| KARN | Kardex | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.71 | (2.04) | 10.04 | |
| LAND | LandisGyr Group AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 2.78 | (4.75) | 10.43 | |
| BRKN | Burkhalter Holding AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.29 | (2.32) | 6.30 | |
| DAE | Daetwyl I | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.13 | 0.06 | 3.83 | (2.05) | 14.31 | |
| BOSN | Bossard Holding AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 2.17 | (2.87) | 8.85 | |
| BVZN | BVZ Holding AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.40 | 0.14 | 4.67 | (2.78) | 14.17 |
Other Forecasting Options for Stadler Rail
For every potential investor in Stadler, whether a beginner or expert, Stadler Rail's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Stadler Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Stadler. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Stadler Rail's price trends.Stadler Rail Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Stadler Rail stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Stadler Rail could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Stadler Rail by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Stadler Rail Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Stadler Rail stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Stadler Rail shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Stadler Rail stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Stadler Rail AG entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Stadler Rail Risk Indicators
The analysis of Stadler Rail's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Stadler Rail's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting stadler stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.32 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.94 | |||
| Variance | 3.75 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Stadler Rail
The number of cover stories for Stadler Rail depends on current market conditions and Stadler Rail's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Stadler Rail is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Stadler Rail's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Stadler Rail Short Properties
Stadler Rail's future price predictability will typically decrease when Stadler Rail's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Stadler Rail AG often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Stadler Rail's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Stadler Rail's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 100 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 B |
Additional Tools for Stadler Stock Analysis
When running Stadler Rail's price analysis, check to measure Stadler Rail's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Stadler Rail is operating at the current time. Most of Stadler Rail's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Stadler Rail's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Stadler Rail's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Stadler Rail to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.