Sarepta Therapeutics Stock Forward View

SRPT Stock

USD 21.49 0.61 2.92%

Sarepta Therapeutics's Naive Prediction forecast is generated from the selected price series and evaluated against observed values. Forecast accuracy depends on how stable the recent price trend has been — trending markets suit some models better than others. The Naive Prediction model projects Sarepta Therapeutics at 22.48 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. All values shown are model-generated projections and should be evaluated alongside other analytical inputs.

Sarepta Therapeutics Cash Forecast

Financial forecasting for Sarepta Therapeutics applies quantitative methods to Sarepta Therapeutics' historical cash flow data. Revenue trends, working capital cycles, and capital expenditure patterns are embedded in Sarepta Therapeutics' historical statements.

Cash

First Reported

1996-12-31

Previous Quarter

613.1 M

Current Value

801.3 M

Quarterly Volatility

472.5 M

Macro event markers

Dot-com Bubble

Housing Crash

Credit Downgrade

Yuan Drop

Covid

Interest Hikes

A naive forecasting model for Sarepta Therapeutics is a special case of the moving average where the smoothing period is one. The forecast for Sarepta Therapeutics on a given trading day is simply the observed closing price of the previous period. Because it uses only a single lag, this model is limited to one-period-ahead forecasts.

Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of May

Over a 90-day horizon, the Naive Prediction model forecasts Sarepta Therapeutics at 22.48 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.71 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.04 , and sum of absolute errors of 43.43 .

This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of Sarepta Therapeutics' price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Sarepta Therapeutics

Sarepta Therapeutics Price Prediction

Research Analysis

Forecasted Value

This forecast for Sarepta Therapeutics frames the expected trading range using downside and upside bounds rather than a single point target. The current forecast range spans downside near 16.70 and upside near 28.26. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.

Market Value

21.49

16.70

Downside

22.48

Expected Value

28.26

Upside

Target Odds

Above Odds

Below Odds

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the Naive Prediction model's error metrics for Sarepta Therapeutics stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.

AIC	Akaike Information Criteria	118.0453
Bias	Arithmetic mean of the errors	None
MAD	Mean absolute deviation	0.712
MAPE	Mean absolute percentage error	0.0374
SAE	Sum of the absolute errors	43.4308

The naive model produces a tight forecast range but offers no smoothing of noise or trend detection. It serves primarily as a baseline benchmark — if a more complex model cannot outperform the naive forecast, it may indicate that Sarepta Therapeutics price movements are largely random over the selected horizon.

Other Forecasting Options for Sarepta Therapeutics

Bollinger Bands applied to Sarepta Stock price data measure how far Sarepta has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to Sarepta Therapeutics' price data.

Sarepta Therapeutics Related Equities

The stocks listed below are peers of Sarepta Therapeutics within the Health Care space and offer context for ranking and strength. Profit comparisons show whether Sarepta Therapeutics earns above or below average returns next to its peers. How Sarepta Therapeutics ranks within this group can shift over time as the competitive picture changes.

Recursion Pharmaceuticals Agios Pharm Beam Therapeutics Cogent Biosciences Denali Therapeutics 89bio Inc Arcus Biosciences Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp Immunitybio Mineralys Therapeutics Common American Airlines Group Alcoa Corp Apple Inc Best Buy Co Citigroup

Risk & Return

Correlation

Sarepta Therapeutics Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators for Sarepta Therapeutics quantify how the stock responds to shifts in volume and sentiment. These indicators capture shifts in momentum that may precede significant price moves in Sarepta Therapeutics.

	Accumulation Distribution	0.0342
	Daily Balance Of Power	0.8243
	Rate Of Daily Change	1.03
	Day Median Price	21.29
	Day Typical Price	21.36
	Market Facilitation Index	0.74
	Price Action Indicator	0.5
	Period Momentum Indicator	0.61

Sarepta Therapeutics Risk Indicators

Analyzing Sarepta Therapeutics' risk indicators separates symmetric price swings from asymmetric downside exposure. Understanding and quantifying the risks present in Sarepta Therapeutics helps place recent price behavior in context.

	Mean Deviation	3.25
	Semi Deviation	4.23
	Standard Deviation	5.72
	Variance	32.72
	Downside Variance	19.82
	Semi Variance	17.85
	Expected Short fall	-3.31

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Sarepta Therapeutics Short Properties

Short-interest data for Sarepta Therapeutics reveals whether bearish conviction in the market is gaining traction. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.

	Common Stock Shares Outstanding	104.8 M
	Cash And Short Term Investments	939.6 M

	Naive Prediction
	Simple Exponential Smoothing
	Double Exponential Smoothing
	Triple Exponential Smoothing
	Simple Regression
	Polynomial Regression
	Simple Moving Average
	4 Period Moving Average
	8 Period Moving Average
	20 Period Moving Average