SIIT SMALL Mutual Fund Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| SSMAX Fund | USD 10.86 0.10 0.93% |
Polynomial Regression is applied to Siit Small Mid's daily closing prices, and the resulting forecast is presented with accuracy metrics. Wide deviation between fitted and observed values suggests the model's assumptions may not match current market conditions. The Polynomial Regression model projects SIIT SMALL at 11.04 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. This Polynomial Regression output is provided as analytical reference and does not constitute a trading recommendation.
Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 8th of May
Over a 90-day horizon, the Polynomial Regression model forecasts SIIT SMALL at 11.04 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and sum of absolute errors of 9.80 .This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks SIIT SMALL's recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest SIIT SMALL | SIIT SMALL Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast range for SIIT SMALL defines statistically derived downside and upside boundaries based on model performance. Downside is estimated near 9.97 and upside near 12.10. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the Polynomial Regression model's error metrics for SIIT SMALL mutual fund. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.5492 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1581 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0155 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.8004 |
Other Forecasting Options for SIIT SMALL
SIIT SMALL's daily price returns decompose into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in SIIT SMALL often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.SIIT SMALL Related Equities
The stocks listed below are peers of SIIT SMALL within the Small Blend space and offer context for ranking and strength. Checking SIIT SMALL against peers on P/E, margins, and return on equity helps put its position in context. When SIIT SMALL breaks from its peer group on a key metric, it often signals a firm-level change worth exploring.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
SIIT SMALL Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for SIIT SMALL mutual fund provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. A rising Accumulation/Distribution line alongside rising price confirms institutional buying interest in SIIT SMALL.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 10.86 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 10.86 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.05 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.1 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 62.61 |
SIIT SMALL Risk Indicators
Assessing SIIT SMALL's risk indicators is a structured way to evaluate the risk-return trade-off for siit small mutual fund. The level of risk embedded in SIIT SMALL's feeds directly into exposure calibration.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8353 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9556 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.11 | |||
| Variance | 1.23 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.35 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.9131 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.91 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.