PT Buana Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| STAR Stock | IDR 660.00 65.00 8.97% |
STAR Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now The value of RSI of PT Buana's share price is above 80 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly overbought by investors. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 80
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using PT Buana hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of PT Buana Artha from the perspective of PT Buana response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PT Buana Artha on the next trading day is expected to be 660.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 25.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,521. PT Buana after-hype prediction price | IDR 725.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
STAR |
PT Buana Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine STAR price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for STAR using various technical indicators. When you analyze STAR charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
PT Buana Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 21st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PT Buana Artha on the next trading day is expected to be 660.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 25.35, mean absolute percentage error of 1,718, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,521.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict STAR Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PT Buana's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
PT Buana Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest PT Buana | PT Buana Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
PT Buana Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting PT Buana's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. PT Buana's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 650.25 and 669.75, respectively. We have considered PT Buana's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PT Buana stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PT Buana stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.7215 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -9.0833 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 25.35 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0553 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1521.0 |
Predictive Modules for PT Buana
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PT Buana Artha. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.PT Buana After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of PT Buana at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in PT Buana or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of PT Buana, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
PT Buana Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting PT Buana's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on PT Buana's historical news coverage. PT Buana's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 715.30 and 734.70, respectively. We have considered PT Buana's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
PT Buana is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of PT Buana Artha is based on 3 months time horizon.
PT Buana Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as PT Buana is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading PT Buana backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with PT Buana, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
3.43 | 9.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
660.00 | 725.00 | 0.00 |
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PT Buana Hype Timeline
PT Buana Artha is at this time traded for 660.00on Jakarta Exchange of Indonesia. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. STAR is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 3.43%. %. The volatility of related hype on PT Buana is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 660.00. About 32.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.32. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. PT Buana Artha had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PT Buana to cross-verify your projections.PT Buana Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to PT Buana's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict PT Buana's future price movements. Getting to know how PT Buana's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how PT Buana may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PEGE | Panca Global Securities | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.24 | 0.14 | 12.57 | (7.59) | 49.08 | |
| LPPS | Lenox Pasifik Investama | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 5.30 | (9.17) | 27.24 | |
| ASRM | Asuransi Ramayana Tbk | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.78 | (4.00) | 17.49 | |
| KREN | Kresna Graha Investama | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.70 | 0.08 | 9.68 | (9.09) | 19.09 | |
| MGNA | Magna Finance Tbk | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.61 | 0.18 | 10.83 | (9.84) | 48.04 | |
| ASMI | Asuransi Kresna Mitra | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.45 | 0.07 | 10.00 | (9.09) | 19.62 | |
| ASDM | Asuransi Dayin Mitra | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.77 | 0.03 | 2.59 | (3.33) | 23.05 | |
| AHAP | Asuransi Harta Aman | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.74 | 0.1 | 10.84 | (9.88) | 49.89 | |
| VINS | Victoria Insurance Tbk | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.96 | 0.08 | 12.07 | (8.33) | 49.13 | |
| MREI | Maskapai Reasuransi Indonesia | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.36 | 0.06 | 6.67 | (6.38) | 31.09 |
Other Forecasting Options for PT Buana
For every potential investor in STAR, whether a beginner or expert, PT Buana's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. STAR Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in STAR. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying PT Buana's price trends.PT Buana Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with PT Buana stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of PT Buana could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing PT Buana by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
PT Buana Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how PT Buana stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading PT Buana shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying PT Buana stock market strength indicators, traders can identify PT Buana Artha entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 13878.62 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.00) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.91 | |||
| Day Median Price | 692.5 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 681.67 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 4.0E-4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (65.00) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (65.00) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 80.62 |
PT Buana Risk Indicators
The analysis of PT Buana's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in PT Buana's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting star stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 6.87 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.54 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 9.43 | |||
| Variance | 89.01 | |||
| Downside Variance | 51.04 | |||
| Semi Variance | 12.53 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (10.84) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for PT Buana
The number of cover stories for PT Buana depends on current market conditions and PT Buana's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that PT Buana is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about PT Buana's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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PT Buana Short Properties
PT Buana's future price predictability will typically decrease when PT Buana's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of PT Buana Artha often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential PT Buana's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. PT Buana's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.8 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 504.7 B |
Other Information on Investing in STAR Stock
PT Buana financial ratios help investors to determine whether STAR Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in STAR with respect to the benefits of owning PT Buana security.