Sierra Tactical Mutual Fund Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| STMEX Fund | USD 25.69 0.02 0.08% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sierra Tactical Municipal on the next trading day is expected to be 25.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.77. Sierra Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Sierra |
Sierra Tactical Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sierra Tactical Municipal on the next trading day is expected to be 25.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.77.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sierra Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sierra Tactical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Sierra Tactical Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Sierra Tactical Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Sierra Tactical's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sierra Tactical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.43 and 25.96, respectively. We have considered Sierra Tactical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sierra Tactical mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sierra Tactical mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0087 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0469 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0018 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.7678 |
Predictive Modules for Sierra Tactical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sierra Tactical Municipal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Sierra Tactical's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Sierra Tactical
For every potential investor in Sierra, whether a beginner or expert, Sierra Tactical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sierra Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sierra. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sierra Tactical's price trends.Sierra Tactical Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sierra Tactical mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sierra Tactical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sierra Tactical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Sierra Tactical Municipal Technical and Predictive Analytics
The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Sierra Tactical's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Sierra Tactical's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Sierra Tactical Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sierra Tactical mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sierra Tactical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sierra Tactical mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Sierra Tactical Municipal entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 25.69 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 25.69 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.02 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 21.27 |
Sierra Tactical Risk Indicators
The analysis of Sierra Tactical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sierra Tactical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sierra mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1503 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.2622 | |||
| Variance | 0.0688 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Sierra Mutual Fund
Sierra Tactical financial ratios help investors to determine whether Sierra Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Sierra with respect to the benefits of owning Sierra Tactical security.
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