StoneCo Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| STNE Stock | USD 15.99 0.10 0.62% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of StoneCo on the next trading day is expected to be 16.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.98. StoneCo Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast StoneCo stock prices and determine the direction of StoneCo's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of StoneCo's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of StoneCo's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.461 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.714 | EPS Estimate Current Year 9.3011 | EPS Estimate Next Year 10.7666 | Wall Street Target Price 19.9219 |
Using StoneCo hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of StoneCo from the perspective of StoneCo response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards StoneCo using StoneCo's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards StoneCo using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of StoneCo's stock price.
StoneCo Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in StoneCo's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards StoneCo. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of StoneCo stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 15.3662 | Short Percent 0.0895 | Short Ratio 3.07 | Shares Short Prior Month 18.2 M | 50 Day MA 15.3314 |
StoneCo Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to StoneCo's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in StoneCo. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding StoneCo can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around StoneCo. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
StoneCo Implied Volatility | 0.6 |
StoneCo's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of StoneCo stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if StoneCo's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that StoneCo stock will not fluctuate a lot when StoneCo's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of StoneCo on the next trading day is expected to be 16.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.98. StoneCo after-hype prediction price | USD 15.98 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of StoneCo to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current StoneCo contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that StoneCo will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0375% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With StoneCo trading at USD 15.99, that is roughly USD 0.005996 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating StoneCo's daily price movement you should consider acquiring StoneCo options at the current volatility level of 0.6%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 StoneCo Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast StoneCo's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in StoneCo's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for StoneCo stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current StoneCo's open interest, investors have to compare it to StoneCo's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of StoneCo is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in StoneCo. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
StoneCo Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine StoneCo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for StoneCo using various technical indicators. When you analyze StoneCo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
StoneCo Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the StoneCo's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2016-12-31 | Previous Quarter 5.2 B | Current Value 5.6 B | Quarterly Volatility 2 B |
StoneCo Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of StoneCo on the next trading day is expected to be 16.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44, mean absolute percentage error of 0.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.98.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict StoneCo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that StoneCo's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
StoneCo Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest StoneCo | StoneCo Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
StoneCo Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting StoneCo's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. StoneCo's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.92 and 19.57, respectively. We have considered StoneCo's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of StoneCo stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent StoneCo stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.0147 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4424 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0279 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 26.9846 |
Predictive Modules for StoneCo
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as StoneCo. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.StoneCo After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of StoneCo at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in StoneCo or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of StoneCo, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
StoneCo Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting StoneCo's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on StoneCo's historical news coverage. StoneCo's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.63 and 19.33, respectively. We have considered StoneCo's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
StoneCo is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of StoneCo is based on 3 months time horizon.
StoneCo Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as StoneCo is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading StoneCo backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with StoneCo, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.26 | 3.32 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 10 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
15.99 | 15.98 | 0.68 |
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StoneCo Hype Timeline
StoneCo is at this time traded for 15.99. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. StoneCo is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 15.98. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.68%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.26%. The volatility of related hype on StoneCo is about 2459.26%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.03. About 75.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.91. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. StoneCo recorded a loss per share of 0.6. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of StoneCo to cross-verify your projections.StoneCo Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to StoneCo's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict StoneCo's future price movements. Getting to know how StoneCo's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how StoneCo may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BOX | Box Inc | 0.30 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 2.76 | (3.61) | 11.36 | |
| ACIW | ACI Worldwide | (0.32) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.08 | (3.30) | 9.43 | |
| CLBT | Cellebrite DI | 0.09 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.03 | (4.33) | 25.88 | |
| QLYS | Qualys Inc | 0.66 | 8 per month | 1.88 | (0) | 2.52 | (3.12) | 25.56 | |
| VRNS | Varonis Systems | (0.96) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.86 | (2.93) | 51.73 | |
| WEX | Wex Inc | (0.48) | 10 per month | 1.62 | 0.01 | 3.31 | (2.82) | 8.14 | |
| OS | OneStream Class A | 0.22 | 9 per month | 2.60 | 0.1 | 6.39 | (4.81) | 29.57 | |
| BTDR | Bitdeer Technologies Group | 1.71 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 8.05 | (9.51) | 27.30 | |
| S | SentinelOne | (0.09) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.42 | (3.75) | 19.38 | |
| DLO | Dlocal | 0.22 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.99 | (3.91) | 11.21 |
Other Forecasting Options for StoneCo
For every potential investor in StoneCo, whether a beginner or expert, StoneCo's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. StoneCo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in StoneCo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying StoneCo's price trends.StoneCo Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with StoneCo stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of StoneCo could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing StoneCo by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
StoneCo Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how StoneCo stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading StoneCo shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying StoneCo stock market strength indicators, traders can identify StoneCo entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 92951.13 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.29) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 15.97 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 15.98 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.03) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.10) |
StoneCo Risk Indicators
The analysis of StoneCo's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in StoneCo's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting stoneco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.35 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.3 | |||
| Variance | 10.92 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for StoneCo
The number of cover stories for StoneCo depends on current market conditions and StoneCo's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that StoneCo is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about StoneCo's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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StoneCo Short Properties
StoneCo's future price predictability will typically decrease when StoneCo's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of StoneCo often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential StoneCo's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. StoneCo's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 301.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 14.6 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of StoneCo to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade StoneCo Stock refer to our How to Trade StoneCo Stock guide.You can also try the Economic Indicators module to top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing.
Is Transaction & Payment Processing Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of StoneCo. If investors know StoneCo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about StoneCo listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.461 | Earnings Share (0.60) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.16 | Return On Assets |
The market value of StoneCo is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of StoneCo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of StoneCo's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is StoneCo's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because StoneCo's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect StoneCo's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between StoneCo's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if StoneCo is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, StoneCo's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.