Constellation Brands Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| STZ Stock | USD 157.86 2.10 1.35% |
Constellation Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Constellation Brands' share price is at 58. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Constellation Brands, making its price go up or down. Momentum 58
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Oversold | Overbought |
Using Constellation Brands hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Constellation Brands Class from the perspective of Constellation Brands response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Constellation Brands Class on the next trading day is expected to be 151.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 231.41. Constellation Brands after-hype prediction price | USD 157.73 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Constellation Brands Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Constellation price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Constellation using various technical indicators. When you analyze Constellation charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Constellation Brands Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Constellation Brands Class on the next trading day is expected to be 151.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.79, mean absolute percentage error of 20.46, and the sum of the absolute errors of 231.41.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Constellation Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Constellation Brands' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Constellation Brands Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Constellation Brands | Constellation Brands Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Constellation Brands Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Constellation Brands' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Constellation Brands' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 149.00 and 153.41, respectively. We have considered Constellation Brands' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Constellation Brands stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Constellation Brands stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.1288 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.7936 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0254 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 231.4083 |
Predictive Modules for Constellation Brands
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Constellation Brands. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Constellation Brands' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Constellation Brands After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Constellation Brands at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Constellation Brands or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Constellation Brands, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Constellation Brands Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Constellation Brands' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Constellation Brands' historical news coverage. Constellation Brands' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 155.52 and 159.94, respectively. We have considered Constellation Brands' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Constellation Brands is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Constellation Brands is based on 3 months time horizon.
Constellation Brands Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Constellation Brands is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Constellation Brands backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Constellation Brands, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.26 | 2.21 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
157.86 | 157.73 | 0.03 |
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Constellation Brands Hype Timeline
On the 27th of February Constellation Brands is traded for 157.86. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.14. Constellation is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 157.73. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.03%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.26%. The volatility of related hype on Constellation Brands is about 404.27%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 158.00. About 20.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The book value of Constellation Brands was at this time reported as 44.47. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.58. Constellation Brands recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.38. The entity last dividend was issued on the 29th of January 2026. The firm had 2:1 split on the 16th of May 2005. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Constellation Brands to cross-verify your projections.Constellation Brands Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Constellation Brands' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Constellation Brands' future price movements. Getting to know how Constellation Brands' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Constellation Brands may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DG | Dollar General | 0.94 | 9 per month | 1.30 | 0.23 | 4.59 | (2.38) | 20.14 | |
| DLTR | Dollar Tree | 2.60 | 11 per month | 1.83 | 0.11 | 4.05 | (3.05) | 10.30 | |
| CHD | Church Dwight | 2.53 | 9 per month | 0.90 | 0.19 | 2.37 | (1.67) | 6.75 | |
| BF-B | Brown Forman | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.16 | (3.72) | 11.68 | |
| GIS | General Mills | (0.22) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.05 | (2.51) | 11.29 | |
| TSN | Tyson Foods | (1.06) | 10 per month | 0.96 | 0.15 | 3.16 | (1.64) | 8.77 | |
| FMX | Fomento Economico Mexicano | (1.18) | 8 per month | 0.99 | 0.15 | 2.37 | (1.86) | 7.81 | |
| BG | Bunge Limited | 2.52 | 10 per month | 0.71 | 0.19 | 3.19 | (1.84) | 8.12 | |
| KOF | Coca Cola Femsa SAB | (1.21) | 12 per month | 1.39 | 0.18 | 2.79 | (2.12) | 8.73 |
Other Forecasting Options for Constellation Brands
For every potential investor in Constellation, whether a beginner or expert, Constellation Brands' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Constellation Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Constellation. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Constellation Brands' price trends.Constellation Brands Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Constellation Brands stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Constellation Brands could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Constellation Brands by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Constellation Brands Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Constellation Brands stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Constellation Brands shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Constellation Brands stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Constellation Brands Class entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Constellation Brands Risk Indicators
The analysis of Constellation Brands' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Constellation Brands' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting constellation stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.67 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.89 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.21 | |||
| Variance | 4.87 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.11 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.59 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.01) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Constellation Brands
The number of cover stories for Constellation Brands depends on current market conditions and Constellation Brands' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Constellation Brands is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Constellation Brands' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Constellation Brands Short Properties
Constellation Brands' future price predictability will typically decrease when Constellation Brands' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Constellation Brands Class often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Constellation Brands' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Constellation Brands' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 181.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 68.1 M |
Additional Tools for Constellation Stock Analysis
When running Constellation Brands' price analysis, check to measure Constellation Brands' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Constellation Brands is operating at the current time. Most of Constellation Brands' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Constellation Brands' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Constellation Brands' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Constellation Brands to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.